PCE hits consensus. Instantaneous (weighted average of m/m inflation, with more recent observations having higher impact) headline and core down.
Figure 1: Instantaneous PCE inflation (T=12, a=4) per Eeckhout (2023) for PCE (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (tan), PCE deflator (pink), CPI supercore (teal), PPI core (light green). May PCE core for May is Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 6/13. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
Instantaneous core is now at target.
While PCE and core PCE m/m inflation were at consensus, they were both below Cleveland Fed nowcasts.
Source: Cleveland Fed, accessed 6/28/2024.
Here’s an updated picture of core measures.
Figure 2: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) per Eeckhout (2023) for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (tan), PCE deflator (pink), CPI supercore (teal), PPI core (light green). Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.
Now, for sure, we know all core measures are down in May.
Wait. Trump told us last night that inflation was 300%. And did any of the moderators call him on this claim?
When will the experts actually produce a realistic number for true inflation?
Have you been reading this blog? Let’s of honest and insightful discussions. Do try to keep up unless you are just another one of those worthless trolls.