Wisconsin Employment Situation: May

The DWD released the May preliminary employment numbers on Thursday (h/t James):

Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark series (teal), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (red), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: DWD, Philadelphia Fed, WI DoR.

We are on target for nonfarm payroll employment vis a vis the May ’24 forecast, according to the DWD/BLS. The Philadelphia Fed early benchmark is slightly below the official (0.4%, 11,500) for April, keeping in mind the actual benchmark (as opposed to extended forecast)  runs through December (0.3%, 7900).

On private nonfarm payroll employment, there’s no early benchmark check. However, I can use the (seasonally adjusted) changes in net job gains from the Business Employment Dynamics to compare against quarterly private NFP.

Figure 2: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment (black), cumulative Business Employment Dynamics net job gains iterated on 2022Q3 (blue), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (red), all in 000’s, s.a. 2024Q2 private NFP average of April and May. Source: DWD, BLS, WI DoR.

Finally, for (the relatively imprecisely measured) household survey based civilian employment series, actual is below forecasted by 0.3%.

Figure 3: Wisconsin civilian employment (black), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (red), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: DWD, WI DoR.


3 thoughts on “Wisconsin Employment Situation: May

  1. James

    Kudos to Evers and Biden admins for moving Wisconsin forward!
    Menzie – one of the things I’ve been wondering about lately: with the impacts of climate change becoming obvious to everyone https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/06/20/heat-wave-east-coast-temperatures-updates/ – when do these red state governors in Southeastern U.S. start getting involved in mitigation and adaptation efforts for their constituents – are they too busy posting the ten commandments from the Tanakh (for all you King James version folks – that’s the Hebrew Bible) in public schools? https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/21/texas-ten-commandments-bill
    Also can anyone provide a GOP policy on climate change mitigation and adaptation beyond an irrational fear of electric boats? FYI – Trump/GOP is promising to unravel Biden’s landmark Inflation Reduction Act’s support for EVs and renewable energy and forcing our grandchildren to live in a hellish future. https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/02/26/1088921/trump-wants-to-unravel-bidens-landmark-climate-law-here-is-whats-most-at-risk/
    That alone should make Trump unfit for President of the U.S. But – the GOP is also trying to convince us that a convicted felon and Putin-loving Trump can be Commander and Chief of the U.S. military.

    1. Macroduck

      The federal government began planning – which is to say, examining alternatives – for flood mitigation around Miami soon after Hurricane Irma:


      You are probably aware of the work that has been done around New Orleans, also heavily reliant on federal action. Lower Mississippi generally.

      Trouble is, anything likely to protect Miami is huge, ugly and expensive, so unpopular. I have heard of plans for a sea wall around only the most expensive downtown Miami real estate, far enough from the beach that tourists’ views won’t be obstructed.

      Take this set of NIMBY, short-term, “No! You pay for it!” issues and imagine them pretty widely distributed. Apparently, int takes a Katrina to teach people that they need to get serious.

  2. Ivan

    Amazing what competent government can do. Not surprising that those who think government can’t do anything right – can’t be put in charge of the government.

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