Continued growth:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), August Survey of Professional Forecasters (bold red), July WSJ (teal), GDPNow of 8/8 (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q2 advance, WSJ survey, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
The NY Fed nowcast for Q3 is slightly lower (2.24% vs. 2.9%).
The survey indicates 16% and 21% mean probabilities of a negative quarter in 2024Q3 and 2024Q4 respectively. For the 1967-2024 to date period, the proportion quarters experiencing negative growth is about 14%.
As noted here, only two people in the WSJ July survey indicated two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
“only two people in the WSJ July survey indicated two consecutive quarters of negative growth”.
Now you left off Steve Koptis who has told us we have had negative growth since 2022QI.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
Harris edge over Trump grows. I guess this is because old J D Vance has been running his mouth a lot.
I get that Trump cannot stand the fact that Harris is attracting large crowds while Trump cannot manage to find his way out of his Maro Lago bedroom but the latest from Trump about Harris allegedly faking crowd sizes suggests to me that Trump need to be escorted to the rubber room:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/harris-campaign-fires-back-at-trump-after-he-accuses-her-of-faking-massive-crowd-sizes/ar-AA1oCFBb?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c36722a38ce94d87b519c7be0848cc16&ei=7
The Republican charge that Walz is pro-Chinese government makes no sense:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/09/china/tim-walz-china-ties-intl-hnk/index.html
Tim Walz moved to China fresh out of college in 1989 to teach high school for a year, and then frequently returned to the country during a decade of taking American students on summer cultural exchanges. The 60-year-old Minnesota governor has spoken fondly of his time in China and the people he met there, and his familiarity with the country and empathy for its people bring a personal, nuanced perspective on the United States’ biggest strategic rival that is rare among his political peers. Some Republican opponents have seized on that experience to accuse Walz of being “pro-China,” but the Democratic vice-presidential nominee has a long history of criticizing authoritarian Chinese leadership.
Walz moved to China at a tumultuous and politically charged time, shortly after the Tiananmen Square massacre, when the ruling Communist Party sent tanks in to violently quell peaceful student-led democracy protests in Beijing. Upon returning home to Nebraska in 1990, he told a local newspaper he felt the Chinese people had been mistreated by their government for years. “If they had the proper leadership, there are no limits on what they could accomplish. They are such kind, generous, capable people,” he told the Star-Herald at the time. During his time in Congress from 2007 to 2019, Walz rallied support for imprisoned Chinese activists. He met with the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader loathed by Beijing, and Joshua Wong, the young Hong Kong democracy activist now jailed for his activism against Beijing’s tightening grip. “The more he understands China, the more he feels pity for the Chinese people, and the more critical he becomes of the rulers who govern them,” said Shen Dingli, a foreign policy analyst in Shanghai. “He has some understanding of Chinese culture and respects it in his heart, but he definitely does not accept China’s political (system),” Shen added. “Beijing is probably more fearful and uncomfortable with such a foreigner who understands China.”
On the other hand Trump has said he is best buddies with Xi!
I found the “sweet spot” of the time to go to China. Long enough after Tiananmen, but enough before the Xi Jinping/2008 Olympics clamp down. Most people who spend time in China are generally impressed with the mainland populace. It tends to be much better than they imagine. The government?? Just as crappy as they imagined.
Walz is a much bigger man than me (in personal character). I would have been chickenshit to got there in the years he did (late ’80s/early ’90s)
Below are my FWIW ARIMA forecasts for the main elements of GDP and weighted ARIMA GDPC1 forecast of 1.7% for 2024Q3. I did not use any higher frequency factors that may increase the accuracy of the forecast. Categories are FRED data sequences. The negative sign in front of imports is hard to see.
Element*Annualized**Weight**Weighted
PCECC96 **2.11 **0.74 **1.55
GCEC1 **1.74 **0.17 **0.30
GPDIC14 **1.43 **0.16 **0.23
EXPGSC1 ***0.77 **0.11 **0.08
IMPGSC1 **2.79 **-0.17 **-0.46
GDPC1 ****************1.70