Wisconsin GDP grew at 4.2% SAAR in Q2. The 2023Q4 figure was raised 2.7% by the annual update (the corresponding figure for US GDP was 1.2%).
Figure 1: Wisconsin GDP, post-update (bold dark blue), pre-update (light blue), and Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast for 2024 (red), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, DoR.
As in the national update, a large portion of the revision seems to have been driven by previous undercounting of income (see this post). Here’s disposable income for Wisconsin, pre- and post-update.
Figure 1: Wisconsin total personal income, post-update (bold dark blue), pre-update (light blue), in billion $, SAAR. Source: BEA.
The gap in total personal income in 2023Q4 is 1.9%.
Note that the roughly 3% decline in Wisconsin GDP registered 2022Q4-23Q2 is deleted, replaced with a roughly 0.3% decline in 2022Q4-23Q1. Hence, the WisGOP declared recession of 2023 disappears.
Here’s a snapshot of economic indicators for Wisconsin, including updated data for GDP and wages and salaries, as well as early benchmark for NFP:
Figure 3: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark for NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries, deflated by national chained CPI (light blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logs 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
I knew buying all those Calypso fruit drinks and cheese would pay off (or was it the Wisconsin based alcohol……. ?? Gee…… ) You’re welcome WI.
VP Harris is right now at FEMA. She has been leading on the recovery from Helena for the past few days.
Trump? He was at the game between ALABAMA and GEORGIA Saturday night but is not parking his fat rear end in the way of rescue efforts in sourt Georgia as he lies his partisan arse off while tossing out paper towels.
Gov. Brian Kemp basically called out Trump’s partisan and toxic lies re the response to Helena:
Kemp praises Biden’s Hurricane Helene response amid Trump criticism
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kemp-praises-biden-s-hurricane-helene-response-amid-trump-criticism/ar-AA1ruFeP?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=b7b47cf8b895453d84f46e987c2d3f31&ei=9
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) expressed his appreciation for the role the federal government has played in responding to Hurricane Helene, contradicting comments from former President Trump, who claimed during a Monday visit to the state that Kemp had trouble reaching President Biden. Kemp and White House officials confirmed Monday that Biden spoke to the governor on Sunday to offer support as the state sorts through the damage from Hurricane Helene.
“He just said, ‘Hey, what do you need?’” Kemp told reporters of his call with Biden. “And I told him, you know, we got what we need. We will work through the federal process. He offered that if there’s other things we need, just to call him directly, which, I appreciate that. But we’ve had FEMA embedded with us since, you know, a day or two before the storm hit.” White House homeland security adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall on Monday also confirmed Biden and Kemp spoke, telling reporters Biden would take the governor’s call if anything else came up during the recovery process.
Off topic – preliminary Helene loss estimates are being published:
https://www.reinsurancene.ws/moodys-puts-total-property-damage-from-hurricane-helene-at-15-26bn/
Moody’s puts property damage at $15 to $26 billion. Had Helene hit more built-up areas of Florida, that figure would have been higher. Moody’s notes that damage will end up being skewed toward lost output rather than lost property. Estimates of combined economic and property loss are running between $95 and $110 billion.
Tack on potential lost output (and income) from dock strikes and Q4 is shaping up to be a below-average quarter for GDP. Holiday selling estimates were also looking tepid, and any inventory shortages could make that worse.
Any update on the number of deaths? Last I heard was 116.