“You Are All $500 Billion Richer Now According To A Revised Biden Admin Spreadsheet” (9/27/2024). I won’t dissect the non-arguments in the article. I’ll just observe that the GDP annual update has brought the GDP series much more in line with the Philadelphia Fed’s tracking of output, in its Coincident Index.
Figure 1: Coincident Index (blue), GDP pre-update (tan), GDP post-update, GDPNow as of 9/27 (red square), all in logs 2019Q4=0. Note that Q3 coincident index is based on average of July and August – hence assumes zero growth in September. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
In other words, according to Zerohedge, it’s all a conspiracy to hide the “truth”, viz.:
…now that a perfectly timed and very strategic data “revision” has come in just in time to drown out the rapidly rising recession narrative, we can pretend – if only for a few months until the election – that US consumer and households are actually quite healthy, even if said healthy is totally fabricated and the result of a mouse click… and nothing else.
If the conspirators are so all-powerful, you’ve gotta wonder why they didn’t manipulate the preliminary benchmark as well…(although see EJ Antoni on the assertion that BLS was deliberately tweaking upward preliminary employment releases).
Of course it is a conspiracy. It is an election year and facts don’t support Zero’s chosen narrative.
EJ Antoni endorsed the garbage ZeroHedge spewed.
“Biden’s Dept of Commerce run by Gina Raimondo, which also runs the BEA”
What a load of garbage. Zerohedge is suggesting that the deep state is taking over all sorts of Federal reporting agencies staffing them with partisan hacks? Oh wait – that is what Trump plans to do. Never mind.
https://www.commerce.gov/bureaus-and-offices/bea
BEA is an independent, principal federal statistical agency that promotes a better understanding of the U.S. economy by providing timely, relevant, and accurate economic accounts data in an objective and cost-effective manner. Although a relatively small agency, BEA produces some of the most closely watched and influential economic indicators, such as gross domestic product (GDP) and the trade balance, that directly affect decisions made by policy makers, business leaders, and the American public.
Maybe fake Tyler Durden and fake PhD Antoni do not realize that BEA is and always has been part of the Commerce Department. Of course if these two MAGA morons are this effing stupid – maybe their access to the internet should be permanently suspended.
“Gross Domestic Income (GDI), which unlike GDP also captures various interest payments, mostly to and from the Federal Reserve.”
Someone should ask Tyler Durden why he writes incessantly stupid comments like this. GDI also captures profits and wages unlike GDP. Dud – does this moron even get the effing difference between income and production?
Look I rarely read his pathetic blog as doing so makes one dumber by the day. Of course the people who worship this blog all have single digits IQs.
I want to harken back to Professor Frankel’s post on President Carter in thinking about Heritage/faux news/modern GOP behavior.
Jimmy Carter did many of the things that Ronald Reagan took credit for. Reagan’s backers collided with Iran tohold U.S. hostages, the collided with Iran again in the Iran-Contra conspiracy. Reagan is the only modern president other than Trump who has face credible accusations of rape.
Result? A conventional wisdom, even among our “elite” thinkers, that Carter was a loser and that Reagan steered the country to a better path. Saint Ronny. Reagan “never raised taxes” even though he did. Reagan “brought down the Soviet Union” even though he didn’t.
Nixon got caught, and the country wanted a clean start, wanted honesty, and Carter got the job. Next thing you know, pretending to be clean and honest works far better than the real thing.
What did Republican political professionals learn from that? They learned to traffic in “alternative facts” all day, every day. Crime is up when its actually down. The economy is in recession when unemployment is historically low and output is rising. Honest, hard working immigrants are pet-eating criminals. Guns save lies. Legal scholars all agree that letting states decide what to do about abortion Is a great idea.
If our society can be convinced that Carter failed, that all of Carter’s accomplishments belonged to Reagan, that a man who left U.S. citizens to rot in Iranian jails so he could win election is a saint, that a potential rapist stood for “family values”, then no lie is too big to tell.
“Colluded”, not collided. Twice, for goodness sake.
and to think the USA has been in recession since biden was elected!