And could it be that Ancient Aliens helped build the Pyramids? Sure!
EJ Antoni links to article noting Senators Roger Marshall (R-KS), Ted Budd (R-NC), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) have jumped in to demand investigation of the BLS regarding the preliminary benchmark revisions:
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), who is leading the charge, said the public deserves an investigation into whether the numbers were intentionally fudged to boost the Harris-Biden administration.
“Using taxpayer dollars to mislead the public for political gain is an outrageous betrayal of trust and one of the reasons Americans have lost all faith in this Administration,” Marshall told The Post.
Dr. Antoni should know better. Here’s a time series plot of the benchmark revisions, expressed in % terms (employment is growing over time, after all).
Figure 1: Preliminary benchmark revisions, in % of original employment estimate (blue). Red dashed lines at election years. Source: BLS, and individual year BLS preliminary benchmark revision releases.
The downward revision of 0.5 ppts is less than two standard deviations from the mean of -0.1 ppts revision (std dev is 0.26 ppts). This means the downward revision is not statistically significant at the 5% msl.
Further note that if the BLS were fudging numbers before elections, one would expect systematically positive revisions in election years (indicated by red dashed lines).
So, one could criticize the BLS on methodological grounds (Got a gripe with the birth-death model used? Then suggest something better) but to cast aspersions on the motives of the professional staff of a nonpartisan statistical agency seems particularly reprehensible when coming from a credentialed Ph.D. economist who should know better. (Personally, I think it more likely that BLS will in its final benchmark revise upward employment, because (1) the likely bias in QCEW numbers used to calculate the preliminary benchmark, and (2) the fact that the preliminary benchmark revision to private NFP from the CES is not reflected in the ADP-Stanford series (the latter does not rely upon QCEW or birth-death model).
Dr. Antoni thus joins the ranks of illustrious purveyors of data paranoia, such as Senator Barraso, Jack Welch, former Rep. Allan West, Zerohedge .
“This piece originally appeared in NY Post”
NY’s rightwing rag. I guess the National Review refused to run it.
“Over the last 12 months, the model “added” 1.3 million jobs—more than half of the 2.5 million new jobs the Labor Department has claimed. To be clear, some of the jobs gains imputed from the birth-death model are indeed real, but most of them are likely a statistical error.”
Let’s say half of them are real. We would still be talking about almost 2 million new jobs – right? To a troll like Antoni – that’s a RECESSION. Yea – could someone at Heritage teach this clown basic arithmetic?
If they were fudging the numbers for the Administration then surely they would not revise the numbers until AFTER the election.
Can’t these people not get their conspiracy plans correct?
and i promise I won’t call you shirley again.
I was wondering if this Antoni disinformation machine had anything to do with Project 2025. He is listed as a contributor. One part of the discussion noted in a footnote this:
Biden Keeps Making Claims About the Economy That Just Aren’t True. These Facts Don’t Lie
https://www.heritage.org/markets-and-finance/commentary/biden-keeps-making-claims-about-the-economy-just-arent-true-these
Heritage ran this trash in early 2023. Here is its own synopsis (summary of its lies):
‘1) Prices are still up about 14 percent under Biden. That is substantially more than the increase in average earnings.
2) Recovering lost jobs is hardly the same as job “creation” however, a word that the president uses frequently.
3) What Biden inherited was an economy growing at a $1.5 trillion annualized rate—hardly “reeling,” as he now describes it.’
Maybe someone should remind Antoni that those “lost jobs” were under Trump. And of course an economy that was plunged so deeply under Trump would tend to have a comeback.
BTW since this rag piece was published, wages have grown faster than prices. Huh – I don’t recall Antoni ever admitting that!
In order to make reasonable decisions and have reasonable ideas, it is necessary to have reasonably accurate information. People like Antoni don’t want to make reasonable decisions or have reasonable ideas, so they cannot tolerate reasonably accurate information.
I went back to your other Labor Day post and noted that the lowest level for real earnings under Biden was as high as the level of real wages pre-pandemic. I note this in light of that Antoni Feb. 2023 hit job that project 2025 noted to claim median real earnings fell by $6000 a year under Biden;
Of course what they forget to mention was that they used as their starting point the transitory increase in real earnings during the pandemic. Go read Antoni and he bitches over the Biden Administration using figures drawn from a transitory period such as the pandemic.
Antoni is as two faced as a liar can get.
So, Antoni’s argument is that “some people think” something. Who, exactly? Self-interested partisans, that’s who. So la-dee-da.
But let’s think about the accusation being made. Biden ordered the BLS to lie about jobs data, but didn’t order them to lie about revisions? Knowing that the revisions would come out less than 90 days from the election? Right. Of course Biden and his buddies would do that…
So Antoni is making a “some people say” argument when the “some people” are self-interested partisans, and what they say doesn’t make sense, even as a conspiracy theory.
Some people say Antoni is a boot-licker.
Others like me would say he licks more than boots but then I don’t want to offend any of the children.
His tendency to note what polls say, what “some people” say, and to rely on stories in rag publications as “economic evidence” does remind me a lot of JohnH and Bruce Hall.
They want an investigation, but have already concluded. Maybe they should provide the basis for their conclusion before they smear hard working professionals for doing their job. I believe the data and the methodology should be available – so do the hard work not the easy smear.
Everything about the Trump-Vance campaign is fake if not stolen:
Photos from Dutch influencers used on X for fake pro-Trump profiles
https://nltimes.nl/2024/08/30/photos-dutch-influencers-used-x-fake-pro-trump-profiles
Someone is using manipulated photos of female influencers to promote Donald Trump’s election campaign on X, CNN and the Center for Information Resilience (CIR) discovered. They identified 56 fake accounts on the former Twitter. Seventeen used photos of European fashion and beauty influencers, including several Dutch women. The fake accounts praise Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, and discredit the Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris. They also post on divisive topics like LGBTQIA+ rights, support for Ukraine, and conspiracy theories about Covid-19, among other things. In some cases, the women’s photos were manipulated to make it look like they’re wearing Make America Great Again clothing in support of Trump’s presidential campaign. Dutch influencer Demi Maric (27) is one of the women. Her photo was used on the now-deleted X account @queen0_gabriela. A pinned post at the top of her timeline said: “If you support Trump, I want to follow you.” The researchers alerted Demi to the fact that her Instagram photos were being used on a fake pro-Trump profile on X. “I found that quite intense to see,” Demi told RTL Nieuws. “Wespecially because politics doesn’t interest me at all. I’m not at all familiar with it. So it’s also a bit scary to see a profile that uses my photos in that way.” “Of course, it’s not nice. You see your own photos. You’re profiled as someone you’re not at all. That’s the crazy thing about it,” she told the broadcaster. Another victim is Debbie Nederlof (32), a German fashion influencer whose photos were used on the account @Luna_2k24. “To be honest, ‘what the fuck,’ was my reaction,” she told CNN. “I have nothing to do with the United States. With Trump, the political things over there. What the hell do I – from a small place in Germany – care about US politics?”
Yea – dishonest and disgusting. And notice one thing – all of these women are young attractive WHITE women. MAGA?
Off topic? Hard to tell anymore. Anyhow, 270-to-Win has moved Florida into the “toss-up” category in its “polls only” electoral college tally. For 270-to-Win, any state where polls average a margin less than 5% of the vote for one candidate or the other is a toss up. As the election date nears, we might assume a narrower margin woulf be appropriate, but it’s 270’s ball, so they make the rules.
With Florida a toss up, the “polls only” vote tally is 210 for Harris, 188 for Trump:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/harris-trump-2024-map-based-on-polls
The 270 “polls plus pundits” map still has Florida leaning to Trump, with the tally at 226 Harris, 219 Trump:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast
Still too close, either way, but this is the best pair of tallies for Harris since she entered the race, and just about the first clear edge for her.
But with Trump promising doobies for Floridians, IVF for pensioners and a deportation in every pot, I’m sure the polls will swing around any day now.
Trump’s latest ad claims immigration will destroy Social Security. Yea – you know what a lot of garbage that claim is but Trump promises not to cut Social Security benefits. He’ll let Congress do that for him.
I’m not sure what to think of polling these days. It’s usually fairly accurate once you take the margin of error into account. But, there are a number of things it doesn’t capture:
1. New voters who are motivated by Roe, equality issues, combatting prejudices, etc.
2. Women who don’t want their husbands to know who they voted for.
3. People like me who don’t respond to polls.
4. Demographic shifts within the electorate.
I’m forgetting a number of things that could skew the polls. The crazy thing is that Harris will need to win by a substantial amount in order to win the Electoral College. Our system has to change.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1830400180216295628?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1830400180216295628%7Ctwgr%5Ed526cf031d9dbec964fdb1f9e4c06079e4a1701e%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fjabberwocking.com%2F
Trump: Bleach bit… it’s basically acid
Hey – Bruce Hall thinks Apple Inc. makes apples rather than smart phones. So Brucie is going to try Bleach bit software as a COVID treatment! MAGA!
https://x.com/votevets/status/1829293509561487819
Great Vote Vet ad noting how disgusting Bonespur Trump really is.
The Walz motorcade had a few fender benders, more airbags deployed than the Dem VP nominee.
Seen in comment on anti price gouging at Naked Capitalism……. drunk auntie Kam.
NC almost as entertaining as pgl
WTF does your stupid comment have to do with what I wrote? We asked you before – get the eff off this blog until you are able to act like a normal person.
Slow day, tx for the laugh…. you know normal
Yea – you could not answer my basic question. You are one worthless little retarded clown.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/the-stupid-price-gouging-discourse.html
I found this adult and interesting blog post. Maybe it was WAY over that excuse of a brain you have for you to understand a word of it.
I did not see your garbage comment. I presume the blog owners deleted. Good choice on their part.
Wow! Somebody somewhere wrote something mean. Never thought we’d see that kind of behavior on the internet! Somebody tell the president!
What very, very important developments will Nameless Nobody bring to our attention next?
That’s my job when I’m drinking and by brain is nonsensical and jumbled. Keep these people out of my zone please.
: )
Keep ’em out of your zone? Live to, bit how??? I beg you, tell me how!
Line of the day. Someone was talking about politicians views on a woman’s right to choice:
Kamala Harris is pro-choice
Mike Pence is anti-choice
Donald Trump is multiple choice!
All Employees, Manufacturing
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP
On this Labor Day. manufacturing employment did rise to over 12.8 million per the combination of Trump’s stupid trade war and his mismanagement of COVID crash our manufacturing sector. Now Biden is claiming that this employment rose by over 800 thousand under his watch. It is indeed almost 13 million now.
But I guess Antoni will say Biden did not create the jobs that Trump’s incompetence destroyed.
Happy Labor’s Day!
Donald Trump must be getting old and senile:
https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/trump-claims-his-incoherent-rambling-is-actually-a-strategy/ar-AA1pTxZH?ocid=BingNewsSerp
In a new claim that he voiced for the first time last week, Trump insists that he isn’t “rambling” during his lengthy, mostly-riffed speeches to the Make America Great Again faithful. Instead, he claims, he is engaged in something he calls “the weave”, the brilliance of which is appreciated only by true experts in the English language. “You know, I do the weave”, he told supporters in Johnstown, Pennsylvania. “I’ll talk about nine different things, and they’ll all come back brilliantly together….and friends of mine that are, like, English professors, they say ‘it’s the most brilliant thing I’ve ever seen’”. He accused “the fake news” of telling voters that he had been rambling. “It’s not rambling”, insisted Trump, who described his rhetoric as an effort to “get off a subject, mention another little tidbit, then you get back on the subject”.
Yea – a lot like your typical Bruce Hall comment!
Trump campaign ‘no longer thinks New Hampshire is winnable and is pulling back from state,’ leaked insider email claims
https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/politics/trump-campaign-no-longer-thinks-new-hampshire-is-winnable-and-is-pulling-back-from-state-leaked-insider-email-claims/ar-AA1pUuhp?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Harris is conceding no state. Just imagine her carrying Florida and Wyoming.
Check out the latest from MAGA land – a repulsive claim that only “high T alpha males” should allowed to vote as everyone else is incapable of thinking:
https://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1609762259416.jpg
Elon Musk has already endorsed this garbage but come on – you know Trump and Vance believe this trash too.
Funny. The MAGA crowd all repeat whatever Trump or Watters or Kudlow says. The “high on T” claim is that they’re independent thinkers. Remember the “ditto heads” proudly proclaiming that they believed whatever Limbaugh told them to believe?
And another thing! How, exactly, does democracy work? Some high-on-T independent thinker decides what he’s going to do (no “shes”, thank you very much), and so does the next one and the next one, and government does all those things, no matter how contradictory? Nope. Compromise and consensus.
What we have is another not-so-veiled attack on our system of government. No women. No men who agree with other people’s ideas. Not even Rand’s Galt or Nietzche’s “Ubermensch” – no excellence required. Just belligerence and insistence on whatever-the-hell you think. Trump, in other words.
People like the one who wrote that are just flattering themselves. Nobody else would.
Ala Kevin Drum – some interesting data on books:
https://jabberwocking.com/raw-data-book-and-newspaper-consumption/
Their nominal price today is lower than it was in 1998. And with this massive decline in the relative price – people are buying a lot more books.
Sen. Vance, should we ‘go to hell’ too? by Steven J. Lepper
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4859273-sen-vance-should-we-go-to-hell-too/#:~:text=Maj.%20Gen.%20(Ret.)%20Steven%20J.%20Lepper%20served%20for%2035%20years
Former President Donald Trump has once again shown a disturbing disregard for these principles. His recent exploitation of Arlington to launch political attacks on President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris was not just inappropriate — it was a profound violation of the respect owed to the men and women who rest there. These fallen heroes, who gave their lives in service to our country, deserve more than to be used as props in a political campaign. Making matters worse, Trump’s aides allegedly verbally abused and physically pushed aside an Arlington National Cemetery official who attempted to stop them from turning the solemn memorial into a political spectacle. Such an assault on an official whose duty is to maintain Arlington’s solemnity and dignity is not just disrespectful, it’s an affront to the values the cemetery represents.
Just a portion of what Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Steven J. Lepper had to say. Read the whole thing.
Off topic? Modeling election outcomes:
https://osf.io/preprints/osf/6g5zq
The point if this paper is that statistical models require calibration, and calibration requires lots of events. Elections happen infrequently, so election models are poorly calibrated.
The authors state that calibration of election models would require a minimum of 56 years of data, and quite possibly thousands of years. I have an inkling the problem is worse. Demographic change, migration between states, education, economic change, changes in communication technology, voter supression – they all make the voting population a moving target. Structural change is constant, meaning calibration is always flawed. Dewey always wins.
So when I link to election forecasts, as I did in an earlier comment, take it with a grain of salt.
I think most of us knew this, but the paper formalized the argument, which is useful. It also gives a taste of statistical modeling outside of economics, also useful.
Raskin is starting an investigation into Egypt’s $10 million payment to Trump just before his inauguration:
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4860121-trump-egyptian-government-probe/
I was beginning to lose hope. Here was a fresh instance of corruption that our flaccid press had decided to ignore, but why had Democrats ignored it?
Now, we have an answer: Timing. Raskin has announced his investigation just in time for the debate.
“the Egyptian government withdrew $10 million in funds shortly after Trump made a last-minute injection of the same amount of his funds to his campaign in the last few days of the 2016 election. The Post reported that soon after the Justice Department began an investigation into whether Trump may have accepted the funds in violation of laws prohibiting foreign campaign contributions, the probe ground to a halt amid concerns from then-Attorney General William Barr.”
Concerns from Barr? Barr was concerned that the truth become exposed.
Republicans at one time talked about the Kamala Krash. Well it continues for one stock – Trump Media!
DJT stock is down 40% thanks to Kamala Harris
https://jabberwocking.com/djt-stock-is-down-40-thanks-to-kamala-harris/
DJT got a little bounce when the Republican convention started, but that wore off quickly and the stock has tanked completely ever since Kamala Harris entered the race. It’s down 40% from its pre-convention price. Mind you, it’s still selling for about 500% more than it’s worth, but it’s obviously fragile because investors are having doubts about whether Trump can win in November. It’s probably a better weathervane for Trump’s reelection odds than actual polls.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT)
Down to $18.08 a share!
Weak Crop Prices and Financial Outlook Have Done a Number on Farmer Sentiment
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/09/ej-antoni-heritage-foundation-some-suspect-government-statisticians-are-committing-lies-of-omission#comments
The Index of Current Conditions fell 17 points to 83, while the Index of Future Expectations decreased by 11 points to 108. This decline reflects growing concerns over weakening farm income prospects, as expectations for a strong fall harvest were overshadowed by falling crop prices. The drop in these indices indicates that farmers are increasingly worried about a prolonged period of weak farm incomes, similar to the downturn experienced from 2015 to 2019. The survey was conducted from August 12 to 16, 2024. The results show a shift in farmers’ concerns, with 30 percent now citing lower commodity prices as their primary worry, up from 20 percent a year ago, while 33 percent continue to point to high input costs.’
The blog talked a lot about soybean prices under Trump’s stupid trade war. It seems prices have dropped below $10 a bushel again.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2531/soybean-prices-historical-chart-data#:~:text=Interactive%20chart%20of%20historical%20daily%20soybean%20prices%20back%20to%201971.
Just imagine the impact on this market as well as the market for corn and wheat if we get involved in another stupid Trump trade war.
China’s weakness could be part of the problem:
https://www.mining.com/web/chinas-bulging-commodity-stockpiles-show-depth-of-economic-woes/
A shift in weather patterns seems to have put a dent in Chinese vegetable production this season, but that’s a separate issue from stockpiles of farm commodities.
‘But the stockpiling is also testimony to the premium placed by Beijing on making sure its factories and citizens never run short. Even when its economy is hot, China houses outsized quantities of raw materials. It holds more than 90% of the world’s visible copper inventories, nearly a quarter of the world’s crude oil, and over half of staple crops like corn and wheat, according to research from JPMorgan Chase & Co. So, while consumption and industrial activity are surely weak, China’s state-owned importers may be not be too fussed if they’ve mistimed their purchases, given their mission to guarantee that the country’s reserves are sufficient come what may.’
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/weak-crop-prices-and-financial-outlook-have-done-a-number-on-farmer-sentiment/ar-AA1pVPUU?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Weak Crop Prices and Financial Outlook Have Done a Number on Farmer Sentiment
OK, I screwed up the link. Here’s the correct one.
One has to love the incessant stupidity ala Bruce Hall. Now this MAGA moron thinks taxing unrealized capital gains means taking the highest possible estimate of market value. Now who would be dumb enough to do that. Oh yea – Trump’s favorite economist Kevin DOW 36000 Hassett.
Let’s go back to just before Trump became President. Kirin Beer wanted to buy a 25% stake in something called Brooklyn Brewery which is a privately held company that made and sold really good beer. I know as I was customer. I’m going to make this really simple because we know Brucie sucks at even the most basis analysis.
Let’s assume sales were $1 billion a year and expected to grow by 3% per year. Production and selling costs were 80% of sales so operating profits represented $200 million a year. Let’s also assume a 4% risk-free rate. As anyone who read DOW 36000 knows, Hassett the incompetent would have valued this company at 100 times profits of $20 billion using the dumbest application of the Gordon growth model even concocted. This is what Brucie boy calls the highest value. Now I know I get some IRS types often abuse valuation models to put forth high estimates but had anyone done what Hassett did, he would have been fired on the spot.
First of all profits are not cash flows as a growing business requires new investments in tangible assets. My estimate of cash flows would be closer to $100 million a year so correcting this single horrifically dumb mistake would lower the value estimate to $10 billion.
But that is clearly too high as the cost of capital exceeds the risk free rate by a CAPM premium for bearing systematic risk. The basic model has been known for over 60 years but I bet Bruce Hall has no idea what I just said. But any credible estimate of the cost of capital for a beer manufacturer is closer to 8%. So put the enterprise value at $2 billion not $20 billion.
At the end of the day, Kirin did purchase a 25% stake for around $500 million, which confirms my application of the Discounted Cash Flow model. But guess what? Bruce Hall thinks this is all too hard as Bruce Hall has no idea what financial economists even is.
The basic concepts of valuation have been well known for decades. Maybe the hard part is application but there are a lot of talented people who know how to do this. Yea – there are a few hacks including the jerks who would have told us that the cost of capital should be 20% to lowball the estimate of fair market value. And then you have the goofballs like Hassett that Trump tends to hire and the morons like Bruce Hall who think this is all too complicated.
CNBC is freaking out over ground beef prices which they claim increased by 11% over the last year. FRED says the increase was only 7.7%.
But that’s not the worst part of this CNBC reporting. FRED has the price per pound at less than $5.50. CNBC says two pounds cost $12.77. One has to wonder – did these CNBC clowns flunk arithmetic. Oh wait – their presentation forgot to tell us their source. I guess they shop at Albertson’s!
“seems particularly reprehensible when coming from a credentialed Ph.D. economist who should know better. ”
i think calling him a credentialed phd is a bit of a stretch. this may sound disparaging, but not all phd programs are equal. he graduated from a program that probably should not be handing out phd’s. the fact that he has one is strong evidence of a lack of rigor in its curriculum.