In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4.
Source: Antoni and St. Onge (2024).
As noted in this post, I cannot — despite my best efforts — replicate their results (wherein they claim the appropriate deflator for GDP is up 40% instead of BEA reported 21.1%, sine 2019Q1). However, if all we produced and consumed (by households, firms, the government, and foreigners) was Big MacTM‘s, then one could argue that we have been in recession since 2022 (but are just coming out in 2024Q2).
Figure 1: US GDP expressed in Big Macs (brown, left log scale), and in bn.Ch.2017$ (black, right log scale), both SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Big Mac prices interpolated linearly from semi-annual reported prices. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update, Economist, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Note that Antoni and St. Onge do not provide a spreadsheet of calculations to show how they obtained their 40% increase in deflator.
“Note that Antoni and St. Onge do not provide a spreadsheet of calculations to show how they obtained their 40% increase in deflator.”
Of course they didn’t. The 40% increase was in an email from JD Vance and not from a Microsoft Excel file.
Now as far as a nation that only produces and consumes Big Macs, that’s the Trump diet. Which of course is why he is fatter than even Krispie Krerme Chris Christie.
When Yellen speaks, you listen!
Janet Yellen says tariffs would isolate America from the global economy
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/janet-yellen-says-tariffs-would-isolate-america-from-the-global-economy/ar-AA1srScU?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=bded98a70aed4827a88d71cd8773ce7b&ei=13
Janet Yellen, U.S. Treasury Secretary, has warned that raising tariffs against either allies or rivals would isolate the country from global trade, hurting its own businesses and households. Her remarks were made before the Council on Foreign Relations and are a clear response to presidential Republican candidate Donald Trump who’s been pushing tariffs as a key economic tool in his campaign.
McConnell privately called Trump a ‘despicable human’ and unfit for office, new book says
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mcconnell-privately-called-trump-a-despicable-human-and-unfit-for-office-new-book-says/ar-AA1ssrQX?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has endorsed Donald Trump for president this year. But in a new book, the powerful Kentucky Republican is quoted after the 2020 election disparaging Trump as a “despicable human being,” “stupid” and “ill-tempered.” Republicans were counting down the days until he left office, McConnell said at the time. He also called the “narcissistic” Trump unfit for office after he incited the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, and the Senate leader sobbed to his staff that day after their lives were put in danger, according to a copy of the book obtained by NBC News. Those quotes and scenes are depicted in “The Price of Power,” a new book out this month by veteran journalist Michael Tackett, deputy bureau chief of The Associated Press. His reporting is based on nearly three decades of private oral histories McConnell shared with Tackett, as well as years of more than 50 hours of interviews and thousands of McConnell’s personal and official records.
And yet McConnell supports this clown to be President again? There is something seriously wrong with Mitch!
come on Chinny. everybody knows the USA has been in recession since Biden was elected. It clearly does not show up in the statistics but you can feel it and that is all that counts!
Off topic – China’s stimulus:
https://asiatimes.com/2024/10/market-unsatisfied-with-beijings-6-trillion-yuan-stimulus/
“New” long-term bond issuance was announced at 6 trillion yuan. Only about half of that is actually new because about half of that amount to had already been announced. Market estimates had run in the 2.3 to 3.0 trillion range, so this is toward the high end. However, a hot-mike comment between Chinese officials had indicated a “really big” package, and this isn’t that.
The SSE is down about 4% this week, but up from recent lows
Business press reports mostly ask is this enough?”, but that’s because they have no idea.
https://x.com/profstonge/status/1846891411737596010
Peter St Onge has one of his Nobel Prize winning youtubes that lecture Dr. Chinn that their adjustments were “pretty obvious”. Of course the youtube pretender could not be bother to mansplain to us how to do his “obvious” adjustments!