Video today.

55% of Americans believe they are in a recession.

Why? Because they have been in one.

Most indicators suggest otherwise.

Here are some of Hovde’s predictions from December 2023:

• Economic Slowdown: The U.S. is likely to enter a recession, with consumers expected to deplete their savings, leading to only one potentially positive GDP quarter in 2024.
• …
• Stock Market and Bond Market: The stock market is projected to experience a 15% sell-off within the next six months, followed by a moderate rally when rate cuts begin. The bond market, after three consecutive down years, is expected to see positive growth in 2024.
• Housing Market: Housing prices might decline by up to 10%, but limited inventory should provide some resilience.
• …

Here is plot of the S&P500 and what the S&P500 needs to be in June to match Hovde’s prediction.

Figure 2: S&P500 (bold black), and Hovde’s prediction (red square). May observation is through 16th of May. Source: FRED, and author’s calculations.

Finally, what about the housing market? The 10% price decline is for 2024, so I assume the 10% decline is off December’s level.

Figure 3: S&P Case Shiller 20 City house price index, s.a. (bold black), and Hovde’s prediction (red square). Source: FRED and author’s calculations.