NFP and private NFP up (although below recent peaks), while civilian employment rises.

Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark for NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries, deflated by national chained CPI (light blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logs 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, DWD, BEA, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.

Since the civilian employment series is based on a much smaller sample (at the state level), it is best to rely on the establishment series. Here NFP are trending sideways relative to mid-2024 levels.

Here’s how nonfarm payroll employment compares to the August Dept of Revenue forecast:

Figure 2: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and Wisconsin DoR Economic Outlook forecast of August (tan), both in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, DWD, DoR.