From NABE two days ago, responses pre- and post-“Liberation Day”:
From the NABE statement:
The initial April 2025 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 41 professional forecasters. The initial survey, covering the outlook for 2025 and 2026, was conducted March 18-25, 2025. In order to capture rapidly changing economic conditions, a flash survey was conducted April 7-9, 2025, and presents the consensus 2025-2026 macroeconomic forecast of 32 professional forecasters out of the 41 initially surveyed.
the chart shows recess prob lower than 50%
Jseydl: The bars indicate the percent of respondents that ascribe a greater than 50% probability of a recession within the year.