Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (red, left scale), VIX (green right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, CBOE via FRED.
10 thoughts on “Policy Uncertainty Spikes”
baffling
rick styrker and bruce hall, just curious how you can justify supporting a tax bill that will add trillions of dollars to the deficit while providing tax cuts to the rich and benefit cuts to the poor? is subsidizing the rich your new policy platform? you seem to be happy to add TRILLIONS of dollars to the debt. and you are going to pay for it with higher interest rates due to inflation. have either of you ever taken an economics course? and if so, did you pass?
Pam Bondi’s Department of Justice has issued new guidelines for denaturalization of US citizens. The new guidelines are so broad that no one who not born a US citizen is safe. Thanks to the Supreme Court, you can be born in the US and declared to not be a citizen. And now, for whatever reason, generally meaning insufficiently loyal to Donald Trump and his policies, can have your citizenship revoked. Among other crimes that could result in denaturalization are:
“Cases against individuals who acquired naturalization through government corruption, fraud, or material misrepresentations, not otherwise addressed by another priority category”
Presumably this could include Melania Trump who fraudulently worked in the US on a tourist visa and Elon Musk who fraudulently worked in the US on a student visa.
Hey, I wouldn’t put it past Trump to threaten his wife’s citizenship for better pre-nup terms. And even more likely threaten Musk’s citizenship to get him to fall into line politically. All it would take would be a discrete letter from the DOJ to Musk “Just informing you that we are doing an investigation into your immigration history.”
This is a direct response to the Supreme Court’s decision to avoid ruling in birthright citizenship in its recent term.
My guess is that Roberts is threading the needle somehow with Alito and Thomas, who rewrite the Constitution every time the pick up a pen, and everybody else. How those two screwballs acquired so much power, while Roberts crusades to rebuild the Court’s credibility, escapes me completely.
I credit Schumer, along with the rest of Democratic leadership, with near record approval ratings for Congressional Democrats:
“Congressional approval was also low, with Democrats scoring a paltry 27% overall and reaching just 44% within their party. Republicans’ overall approval rating in Congress hit an all-time high of 35%, but that was before the deeply unpopular budget bill passed the Senate.”
A near ecord low for Democrats, that is. By the way, notice what a record high for Congressional Republicans looks like. Democrats act like they have to tip-toe around social issues and soft-peddle nearly anything that looks even slightly like an idea, when the other guys intentionally pursue policies that the majority hate. “I made them rename that bill that’s gonna kill thousands of poor people” seems about right.
By the way, if Democrats can’t please morethan 44% of Democrats, the mid-terms could well be a disaster. Should be a walk-over, given the sewer that Republicans call their agenda, but Democrats are attacking their own at the behest of a foreign power instead of working to beat an economy crushing, brown people bombing and deporting, environment ruining, healthcare defunding, billionaire adoring, Democracy undermining, court corrupting bunch of cowards.
“I admire Elon’s leadership on rockets, but I will take care of the finances. I don’t agree at all. This bill will set off growth like we have never seen before. And once you see the growth trajectory change to an upward bias, the bill more than pays for itself. We could be in surplus.”
That’s right, Bessent is projecting not just tax cuts paying for themselves but an actual budget surplus. Is he getting into Musk’s ketamine stash?
“After shrugging off Trump’s assault on government for the last five months and a MAGAMurder bill, Democratic leaders have finally found something to be outraged about: Zohran Mamdani’s primary win.”
Some people say why would anyone care about a NYC mayor election? New York City has a population larger than 32 states and a budget larger than 46 states.
rick styrker and bruce hall, just curious how you can justify supporting a tax bill that will add trillions of dollars to the deficit while providing tax cuts to the rich and benefit cuts to the poor? is subsidizing the rich your new policy platform? you seem to be happy to add TRILLIONS of dollars to the debt. and you are going to pay for it with higher interest rates due to inflation. have either of you ever taken an economics course? and if so, did you pass?
Pam Bondi’s Department of Justice has issued new guidelines for denaturalization of US citizens. The new guidelines are so broad that no one who not born a US citizen is safe. Thanks to the Supreme Court, you can be born in the US and declared to not be a citizen. And now, for whatever reason, generally meaning insufficiently loyal to Donald Trump and his policies, can have your citizenship revoked. Among other crimes that could result in denaturalization are:
“Cases against individuals who acquired naturalization through government corruption, fraud, or material misrepresentations, not otherwise addressed by another priority category”
Presumably this could include Melania Trump who fraudulently worked in the US on a tourist visa and Elon Musk who fraudulently worked in the US on a student visa.
Hey, I wouldn’t put it past Trump to threaten his wife’s citizenship for better pre-nup terms. And even more likely threaten Musk’s citizenship to get him to fall into line politically. All it would take would be a discrete letter from the DOJ to Musk “Just informing you that we are doing an investigation into your immigration history.”
https://www.justice.gov/civil/media/1404046/dl?inline
This is a direct response to the Supreme Court’s decision to avoid ruling in birthright citizenship in its recent term.
My guess is that Roberts is threading the needle somehow with Alito and Thomas, who rewrite the Constitution every time the pick up a pen, and everybody else. How those two screwballs acquired so much power, while Roberts crusades to rebuild the Court’s credibility, escapes me completely.
Oh well, that prediction didn’t take long.
Reporter: Are you going to deport Elon Musk?
Trump: We will have to take a look.
This is third world dictator talk, disappearing your political enemies.
It WOULD prevent Elon feom do ating hundreds of millions to anti-BBB candidates, so a real.win for MAGA if Trump doesnit.
Senator Schumer crowing today:
“I just got the name struck off this bill with a move on the floor of the senate. It is no longer named One Big Beautiful Bill.”
Gee, Chuck, thanks for looking out for our interests. You’re amazing!
I credit Schumer, along with the rest of Democratic leadership, with near record approval ratings for Congressional Democrats:
“Congressional approval was also low, with Democrats scoring a paltry 27% overall and reaching just 44% within their party. Republicans’ overall approval rating in Congress hit an all-time high of 35%, but that was before the deeply unpopular budget bill passed the Senate.”
A near ecord low for Democrats, that is. By the way, notice what a record high for Congressional Republicans looks like. Democrats act like they have to tip-toe around social issues and soft-peddle nearly anything that looks even slightly like an idea, when the other guys intentionally pursue policies that the majority hate. “I made them rename that bill that’s gonna kill thousands of poor people” seems about right.
Sorry, here’s the link:
https://thebradentontimes.com/stories/poll-most-feel-american-democracy-is-under-threat,150219
By the way, if Democrats can’t please morethan 44% of Democrats, the mid-terms could well be a disaster. Should be a walk-over, given the sewer that Republicans call their agenda, but Democrats are attacking their own at the behest of a foreign power instead of working to beat an economy crushing, brown people bombing and deporting, environment ruining, healthcare defunding, billionaire adoring, Democracy undermining, court corrupting bunch of cowards.
The so-called adult in the room, Scott Bessent:
“I admire Elon’s leadership on rockets, but I will take care of the finances. I don’t agree at all. This bill will set off growth like we have never seen before. And once you see the growth trajectory change to an upward bias, the bill more than pays for itself. We could be in surplus.”
That’s right, Bessent is projecting not just tax cuts paying for themselves but an actual budget surplus. Is he getting into Musk’s ketamine stash?
“After shrugging off Trump’s assault on government for the last five months and a MAGAMurder bill, Democratic leaders have finally found something to be outraged about: Zohran Mamdani’s primary win.”
Some people say why would anyone care about a NYC mayor election? New York City has a population larger than 32 states and a budget larger than 46 states.