ERS predicts 2.2% increase in food-at-home prices in 2025.
Figure 1: CPI food-at-home (black); ERS forecast of January (light blue square), ERS forecast of March (red triangle), ERS forecast of June (inverted green triangle). Source: BLS via FRED, ERS, and author’s calculations.
While food-at-home inflation has decreased, it still remains the fact that grocery prices are rising — not falling. Further PPI-food manufacturing continues to rise, so we can be reasonably confidence of continued grocery price increases.
That 2.2% forecast compares to 1.7% last year, 1.3% in 2023. In only 4 of the past ten years has food-at-home inflation been 2.2% or higher, three of those in the COVID era:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1KK38
We elected the felon-in-chief mostly because of inflation, right? Smooth move, fellow voters.
Now boys – don’t you worry none! King Trump loves the farmers and he will get you subsidies or do like last time and send direct payments to ya (In 2018 Trump administration introduced $16 billion of new trade aid. In 2019, the Donald Trump administration increased the bailout to $16 billion)
Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) told MA that farmers need to “grab a hoe and hold on.”
“Our farmers are in trouble,” he told MA last week. “They’re in bad trouble. I don’t know whether there’s anything we can do to save them, unless these tariffs work, and I hope we can. We’re going to do everything we possibly can.”
(ah the great American welfare commodity producers – and sure keep voting for the GOP that is intent on destroying your business.)
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-agriculture/2025/07/21/farmers-tariff-patience-wears-thin-00465118