That’s q4/q4, as noted in the survey results for September.
FIgure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September survey median (red triangle), 10/90 percentile interval (gray +), GDPNow of 9/1 (light blue square), and 2023-24 trend (chartreuse), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025q2 3rd release/annual benchmark revision, FT-Booth Seeptember survey, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
The median survey response of 1.6% is just below my estimate of 1.7%. While the current GDPNow nowcast is at the upper end of the 10/90 percentile interval, the St. Louis Fed’s at essentially zero growth (not shown) is below the 10th percentile (see this post).
“Russia slashes 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.5%” The Russian economy is characterized as “being in trouble?” But is it really in more trouble than the US economy, which is expected to grow at only 1.6%?
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russia-slashes-2025-economic-growth-forecast-15-25-2025-08-27/
JohnH: I think we’ve had this conversation before. Maybe try deducting security and defense expenditures on goods and services and see what growth rates you get…
For readers unfamiliar with Johnny, who has somehow gotten around the ban imposed on his comments do to his bad behavior, Johnny is a Putin booster. Johnny routinely accused Ukraine of being the guilty party in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He routinely engages in rhetorical trickery. He routinely makes mistaken assertions about economic data.
And now, here’s Johnny, playing “Oh, Yeah! Well so are you!” while ignoring the fact that our host and commenters here have regularly been documenting weakness in the U.S. economy. This isn’t just rhetorical trickery – it’s really clumsy trickery.
But thanks, Johnny, for pointing out that Russia’s economy is in serious trouble. Do your masters in Moscow know you’re highlighting their weakness?
The US economy doubled in real terms during the Vietnam War. Military spending peaked at about 9% of GDP. Obviously the US economy was in “real trouble” during that period. [Irony] Funny how I didn’t recall many economists chastising LBJ about how much damage the Vietnam War was doing to the US economy. War protesters certainly could have used their help in getting us out of that pointless and futile quagmire.
OTOH Russia is spending about 6.3% of its GDP on the military and keeping interest rates high to keep inflation under control. As a result, Russian growth is only 1.5%. I might point out that Eurozone GDP growth has hovered near zero for years without a lot of attention being directed at how much trouble their economies are in!
I get a lot of criticism from warmongers like MacroDuck for being pro-Putin, but what I’m actually trying to point out is the double standards by which the US and Russia are measured–remember the constant stream of “Ukraine is winning” propaganda we’ve witnessed even as Russia slowly bites off more chunks of Ukraine? Mischaracterization of Russia’s economy is part of the effort to convince people that Ukraine still has a glimmer of hope, and so the US should spend yet more resources on yet another pointless and futile war.
It was bad enough that the Trump administration was blatantly violating the Hatch Act by putting the following political messages on the HUD and USDA and State Department web sites:
“The Radical Left in Congress shut down the government. HUD will use available resources to help Americans in need.” and “Due to the Democrat-led shutdown, website updates will be limited until full operations resume.”
If that’s not enough, now they are hacking employees’ email accounts so that they return the following message while they are on furlough:
“Thank you for contacting me. On September 19, 2025, the House of Representatives passed H.R. 5371, a clean continuing resolution. Unfortunately, Democrat Senators are blocking passage of H.R. 5371 in the Senate which has led to a lapse in appropriations. Due to the lapse in appropriations I am currently in furlough status. I will respond to emails once government functions resume.”
They are now literally putting political speech in the mouths of their federal employees against their will. The lawlessness is incredible. They simply don”t care anymore because Trump has the Supreme Court radicals in his hip pocket.
One employee says that he changed the his out-of-office message to a generic one twice and it was reverted back to the political message against his will. Note that the message says “I” and “me” making clear it is supposed to be coming from the voice of the employee.
What would you do if your employer did this?
this is because trump and his administration simply have no integrity or morals. this is juvenile behavior. if those individuals sent a similar email targeting republicans instead, they would get fired. shameless abuse of power.
Speaking of weakening economic performance, yesterday’s ADP jobs report included a big downward revision to August. The result is private job losses in three of the past four months. ADP’s data don’t cover many business cycles, but we can take a look at the BLS private employment series:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1MKpN
Prior to the Great Moderation, private hiring would sometimes fall for a feelw months in mid-to-late cycle without leading quickly to recession. Since the Great Moderation, a string of private job losses has been a fairly reliable leading indicator of recession.
Also, Uh Oh:
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ism_manufacturing_employment_index
https://m.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-non-manufacturing-employment-1048
Both below 50 for several months.
Off topic – Who said anything about regime change?
The U.S. has sent a bunch of refueling planes to Qatar, just as was done back in June, in preparation fot bombing Iran:
https://www.newsweek.com/us-deploys-military-assets-middle-east-10809727
Iran trying to re-establish its network of proxy militias:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-larijani-pushes-hezbollah-rebuild-190435404.html
“Crown Prince” (seriously?) Reza Pahlavi is angling for regime change:
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-869305
Iran is suffering serious water shortages, notably in Tehran:
https://time.com/7321571/iran-water-crisis-greatest-threat/
I can imagine Bibi and his faithful lackey-in-chief bombing water infrastructure in an effort to destabilize Iran. Over the top? I’m happy to entertain alternatives, but look at Gaza if you doubt.
Faux News has published some serious neo-con spin as “news”:
https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-expands-shadow-empire-across-middle-east-trump-pulls-troops-from-iraq-syria
The giat is, Iran is going to get us if we don’t keep lots of troops in the Middle East.
So the US military is now a mercenary army sworn to protect Jared Kushner’s $1.5 billion Qatar investment? Trump even twisted Bibi’s arm to apologize for bombing them. That tells you how serious he is about protecting the family business.
Is there no end to these sleazy folks?
And now we have “the adult in the room” Scott Bessent at the top of every page on the Treasury.gov website:
“The radical left has chosen to shut down the United States government in the name of reckless spending and obstructionism. As a result, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s websites will only be sporadically updated until this shutdown concludes.”
Ironically, or maybe not, right below this it says: “An official website of the United States government” Yes, the US government is now an official arm of the Republican Party and their Dear Leader. They could not make it more clear.
This lawlessness is just a thumb in the eye of the public, a brazen declaration that the authoritarians are in control and cannot be touched.
It gets worse. US Treasurer Brandon Beach announces that the Treasury will be minting a one dollar coin with the profile image of Trump on the front, George Washington style, and an image of Trump with the clinched fist on the back with the word “fight, fight, fight”.
This is Roman Emperor stuff. By law, only deceased individuals may be depicted on US currency, so I’m not sure what the Treasurer is implying.
Maybe you find it amusing, but this is genuine fascist stuff. Every transgression is another brick in the wall.
https://x.com/TreasurerBeach/status/1974156375891804229
Beach is the first man to serve as Treasurer in 76 years. Maybe it takes a woman to do the job right in this modern age.
Beach didn’t do this without Scott Bessent’s direction and approval.
It’s also worth noting that Beach, a Georgia politician, is an extreme MAGA loyalist who was involved in the “fake electors” scheme to overturn the 2020 Georgia election results on behalf of Trump. Not surprising that he would also be involved in coining homage to his Dear Leader.
It’s a fascist cult.