That’s q4/q4, as noted in the survey results for September.
FIgure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September survey median (red triangle), 10/90 percentile interval (gray +), GDPNow of 9/1 (light blue square), and 2023-24 trend (chartreuse), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025q2 3rd release/annual benchmark revision, FT-Booth Seeptember survey, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
The median survey response of 1.6% is just below my estimate of 1.7%. While the current GDPNow nowcast is at the upper end of the 10/90 percentile interval, the St. Louis Fed’s at essentially zero growth (not shown) is below the 10th percentile (see this post).
“Russia slashes 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.5%” The Russian economy is characterized as “being in trouble?” But is it really in more trouble than the US economy, which is expected to grow at only 1.6%?
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russia-slashes-2025-economic-growth-forecast-15-25-2025-08-27/
JohnH: I think we’ve had this conversation before. Maybe try deducting security and defense expenditures on goods and services and see what growth rates you get…
For readers unfamiliar with Johnny, who has somehow gotten around the ban imposed on his comments do to his bad behavior, Johnny is a Putin booster. Johnny routinely accused Ukraine of being the guilty party in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He routinely engages in rhetorical trickery. He routinely makes mistaken assertions about economic data.
And now, here’s Johnny, playing “Oh, Yeah! Well so are you!” while ignoring the fact that our host and commenters here have regularly been documenting weakness in the U.S. economy. This isn’t just rhetorical trickery – it’s really clumsy trickery.
But thanks, Johnny, for pointing out that Russia’s economy is in serious trouble. Do your masters in Moscow know you’re highlighting their weakness?
It was bad enough that the Trump administration was blatantly violating the Hatch Act by putting the following political messages on the HUD and USDA and State Department web sites:
“The Radical Left in Congress shut down the government. HUD will use available resources to help Americans in need.” and “Due to the Democrat-led shutdown, website updates will be limited until full operations resume.”
If that’s not enough, now they are hacking employees’ email accounts so that they return the following message while they are on furlough:
“Thank you for contacting me. On September 19, 2025, the House of Representatives passed H.R. 5371, a clean continuing resolution. Unfortunately, Democrat Senators are blocking passage of H.R. 5371 in the Senate which has led to a lapse in appropriations. Due to the lapse in appropriations I am currently in furlough status. I will respond to emails once government functions resume.”
They are now literally putting political speech in the mouths of their federal employees against their will. The lawlessness is incredible. They simply don”t care anymore because Trump has the Supreme Court radicals in his hip pocket.
One employee says that he changed the his out-of-office message to a generic one twice and it was reverted back to the political message against his will. Note that the message says “I” and “me” making clear it is supposed to be coming from the voice of the employee.
What would you do if your employer did this?
Speaking of weakening economic performance, yesterday’s ADP jobs report included a big downward revision to August. The result is private job losses in three of the past four months. ADP’s data don’t cover many business cycles, but we can take a look at the BLS private employment series:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1MKpN
Prior to the Great Moderation, private hiring would sometimes fall for a feelw months in mid-to-late cycle without leading quickly to recession. Since the Great Moderation, a string of private job losses has been a fairly reliable leading indicator of recession.