Per Bloomberg. Hmm. Commitment to 12 mn metric tons (MMT) “this year” (calendar, market?).

Figure 1: Figures up to pre-meeting, black bars; red bar, commitment assuming 12 MMT pertains to CY2025. Source: Bloomberg.

Source: Barchart.

Say net farm income rises by about $3 bn. That does not appreciably change the outlook for net farm income, as shown here (discussed here):

Figure 2: Farm net cash income (bold black line), government support (tan bar), rest of income (blue bar), expenses (green bar), all in bn2025$. 2025 figure is ERS estimate. Source: ERS USDA (Sept 2025).

I will say, given the record of compliance of the Chinese in purchases during Trump’s “Phase 1” of the US-China deal, I am not sanguine.

Source: Bown/PIIE.