From the retail sales release, nominal retail sales in October constant vs. +0.1% m/m Bloomberg consensus. In real terms, they’re down.
Figure 1: Real retail sales deflated by chained CPI (blue), by CPI-all (tan), real consumption (green), all in logs 2025M01=0 . October consumption is predicted using a first differences regression of consumption on real retail sales, 2025M01-25M09. Source: Census, BEA, BLS, and author’s calculations.
Leave out vehicles and gasoline and the picture is somewhat better:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1OUMI
The slow pace of vehicle sales may reflect weaker demand, limited supply, or both. As to supply, the inventory/sales ratio for domestic autos is still pretty tight, though improved from earlier in the Covid era:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1OUMr
Still, not a pretty retail scene.
I do worry about the auto sales numbers being affected by front running for EV subsidies.
So, the felon-in-chief has ordered up bonuses for those in the military. He announced the payments during a speech which was meant to address cost-of-living problems, and by extension, his weak support among the public. That’s checks of $1,776 to each of about 1 million voting-age people, so it makes sense. It also makes sense that he’d attempt to build support among the armed forces should he want to attempt another coup. Or if not a coup, then to suppress voting in Democratic voter strongholds.
All for the low, low price of a couple of billion dollars of taxpayer money. A bargain if it works.
Turns out, it’s all a lie. The felon-in-chief, breaking the law once again, has simply pilfered a fund meant to provide housing allowances to military personnel and will use the money to write them checks. He takes credit for money provided by Congress, breaking the law in the process.
So eventually – like all the other illegalities – he will have to pay for it out of his own pockets.