CME FedWatch indicates staying put next meeting, rises by nearly 5 percentage points; staying at current rate rises at the 29 April meeting by nearly 10 percentage points.
Yellen’s assessment (Bloomberg).
CME FedWatch indicates staying put next meeting, rises by nearly 5 percentage points; staying at current rate rises at the 29 April meeting by nearly 10 percentage points.
Yellen’s assessment (Bloomberg).
Predictably, the dollar (DXY) is up in response to firmer monetary policy expectations and domestic oil supply which shields the U.S. from war-induced supply problems. Funny how a country with its own oil supply is so ready to risk other countries’ access to oil.
Treasury 10s have added about 9 basis points in yield, a response to the tighter Fed outlook and 6 bp rise in 10-uesr TIPS yield.
Stocks down, but not much.
All very much according to Hoyle. The only mystery in any of these directional moves is “how much?”. The answer to that depends very much on “how long?” and “how bad?”.
Tangential to topic – Neo-conservative thinking encompasses quite a few (mostly bad) ideas. In the earliest days, one ever-present proto-neocon idea is that the U.S. has to exercise hegemonic power over energy markets.
During the Mad King’s second term, the U.S. has embarrassed itself by grabbing Venezuela’s oil and trying to bully oil companies into dumping hundreds of billions into it; so far, no takers. In the process, we grabbed some tankers headed for China. Now, we’ve begun a war that cuts China off from Iranian oil. A number of nations, which insist on calling themselves a “coalition of the willing” (sheesh!), have just announced an intensified hunt for black-market tankers hauling Russian oil, mostly to China and India.
Richard Haas has just said that the attack on Iran is inconsistent with the Mad King’s latest strategic military stance, in that it shifts focus away from Asia (and, though Haas didn’t mention it, away from chastising Europe for being multi-cultural). That’s only partly true. Much of the Mad King’s proto-neocon policy behavior ends up as an attack on China’s interest and influence. Instead of focusing on accelerating U.S. achievement, this amounts to an effort to slow China down.
China and India will essentially use Russian Oil. Your not seeing the forest from the trees.
Whatever “essentially” means in yhat sentence, it doesn’t overcome reality. There is less oil supply in tue world while Hormuz is shut. Russia cannot ramp up production and cannot avoid sanctions so as to replace supply through Hormuz. That’s just silly.
Oh, and I think you mean “you’re “, not “your”.
But thanks for playing.
The felon administration has a plan to calm oil markets, according to Secretary (of Energy?) Rubio. There’s a plan, but it’s a secret until tomorrow, for some combination of the following reasons:
– There’s no plan – nobody thought about it until today.
– There’s no plan – they thought about but didn’t see any need because Iran never carries through on threats to close the Straits of Hormuz.
– Insiders need time to call their brokers.
Speaking of Rubio, remember when Brucie told us that Rubio had been Oh! So impressive! at the Munich conference? I suggested that Brucie’s sycophancy was an early symptom of Rubio’s 2028 presidential candidacy.
Well, little Marco is now standing in for the Energy Secretary. In Munich, he talked nice nonsense after Vance had talked mean nonsense a year earlier. Rubio is in Mar-el-Lago with the felon-in-chief while Vance is left behind in DC. Rubio is loudly making the case for war while Vance – a standard-bearer for the non-intervention splinter of the GOP – is nearly silent.
The felon was never really a non-interventionist. That would require an actual set of principles. It was just another act, a way of saying how very, very bad other politicians are. Now that the felon’s numbers are weak and the Epstein files have refused to die, war is the felon’s new thing. Rubio is ascendant, Vance is in shadow and Brucie follows orders from MAGA central.
As usual Trump is shooting himself in the foot. They want to have American energy dominance. Yet they are serving up the world a major reason to abandon hydrocarbon energy. Not only are hydrocarbon energy prices barely competitive in the best scenario – but supply and prices are wildly unstable and subject to the whims of the unstable “genius” in the White House.