Preliminary UMich sentiment was at a record low in April. However, it’s pretty clear sentiment has been on average lower in the last 15 years, suggesting a trend decrease; the “vibecession” talk of 2024 is part of that phenomenon.
Figure 1: HP detrended level U.Michigan Sentiment (blue), deviation from log linear time trend (red), in points. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: U.Michigan via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations.
Usually, one doesn’t want to do a linear detrending on trending macro series, but in this case — given Sentiment is bounded, and cancels a unit root null — a (log) linear detrending is not inappropriate. Measured either way, consumer sentiment is low.
Orban lost. Let’s see if he leaves office peacefully.
Ukraine is likely to benefit from Orban’s loss; he leaves office or Hungary leaves the EU. Russia loses a lapdog, while Hungary makes an enemy.
Looks like Netanyahu may be out of office come October. That depends partly in parliamentary deal-making, but right now, he’s in trouble.
Bolsonaro is on house arrest, released from prison because of ill health.
Milie had been doing well, but a new crypto-corruption revelation has him in trouble. (Crypto and corruption, they go together like beans and rice.)
Bukele seems to be doing OK in El Salvador.
So that’s democratically-elected, felon-in-chief-aligned leaders in a nutshell – four out of five out of favor. Some have had a longer shelf-life than the felon himself, but their time seems just about over. With the felon doing so much harm to the global economy and to global stability, wildly unpopular at home and abroad, providing no effective political support to any ally other than Bibi – and that support ain’t workin’ – MAGA’s days abroad appear to be nearly over. Special congratulations to Steve Bannon – who’s a cuck now?