Treasurys and TIPS, 70 and 46 bps respectively.
Figure 1: Change since 2/27 in 10 year Treasury yield (blue), TIPS (dark red), expected real yields (light red), all in %. Source: Treasury via FRED, Federal Reserve, and author’s calculations.
As of 4/30, the estimated increase in TIPS (22 bps) due to higher future expected real rates was 15 bps.
Both Vance and the war-criminal-in-chief have said the war with Iran may be near an end:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/vance-says-a-lot-progress-made-iran-talks-2026-05-19/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-ease-after-trump-says-us-will-end-iran-war-very-quickly-2026-05-20/
WTI is down 4 1/2 bucks, Brent down 5 and a quarter, Treasury yields with them. We’ve seen this before. By one count, the criminal has cycled between threats of renewed war crimes and a peace deal six times during the ceasefire, not counting today.
Iran seems to have him boxed in, what with U.S. intelligence reporting that Iran has gobs of weapons left and Iran ready to shut down Bab el-Mandeb if we attack again. And the Senate has passed a war-powers thingie. Who knows?
Anyone else getting the impression Fed picy makers are laying down a couple of markers in anticipation of the secondcoming of Kevin Warsh?
Warsh is due to be sworn in as Governor and Chair this week. Warsh says Fed folk talk too much. This week is chock full of Fed officials speaking their minds. Warsh was appointed by a guy who weaponized the Department of Justice just to get rates lower, and today’s FOMC minutes show members speculating that rates may have to go up if inflation doesn’t cool off. Double points, because that means rates go up if there isn’t a quick end to the Iran war. Oh, and Jay is sticking around.
“Come right in, Mr. Warsh! We’ve been waiting for you. This is gonna be fun!”
That’s exactly what I thought. I don’t think Warsh is going to be successful in gagging the Board. What can he threaten them with?
Warsh’s first Board meeting is going to be epic. Warsh can either disappoint his boss by opposing a rate cut or else make a fool of himself dissenting from his entire board now that Miran is gone. And the deliciousness of Powell lurking in the back of the room has got to really gall Warsh.
Warsh has a vendetta to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet. Doesn’t he realize that is monetary tightening and will push up long term rates?
Where Warsh can do some real damage is taking a DOGE chainsaw to Fed staff and his intention to deregulate banking.
“What can he threaten them with?”
Warsh will not be the one doing the threatening. it will be trump. and trump has already forced one member off of the board. he is not done with Powell yet. not by a long shot. and don’t be surprised if more board members decide to leave in the middle of the night to pursue “other interests”. trump does not like when people stand up against him. the fed board will continue to be a target.
Trump has been unsuccessful forcing anyone off the board except for Stephen Miran, a bumbling own-goal. And he has only succeeded in inducing Powell to stay.
Powell and Lisa Cook have shown no signs of buckling under and I don’t expect Trump to be successful in doing so. I don’t see Warsh being successful in gagging the board. They can just tell him to pound sand.
Adriana kugler stepped down early, and gave the seat to Miran. and make no mistake, she stepped down because trump was threatening her with mortgage fraud allegations. she chose not to fight that for a couple extra months on the board. but trump succeeded in bullying her.
I think Powell and cook will continue to fight.
there will be others that trump threatens, and will probably succeed. good people on the board still have some small skeletons in the closet. even if they are not real issues. there will be some folks who have no desire to get drug through the mud.
Baffling, you have no idea what you are talking about. The Kugler resignation had nothing to do with mortgages. The Kugler resignation was forced by Powell due to violations of stock trading restrictions by her husband. Powell had made a strict, no exceptions, ethics rule on stock trading after some embarrassing revelations of stock trading by members back in 2022. Kugler and her husband violated the rules so Powell expelled her from board meetings and she subsequently resigned.
Trump had absolutely nothing to do with Kugler’s resignation. And Trump has never successfully forced anyone out of the Fed. Just the opposite, he induced Powell to stay.
This was explained at the time back in November and you even commented on it, so you can’t complain you didn’t see it. You must have a short memory.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/taylor-1999-on-miran-2025#comment-321578