Where to Find Business Cycle Chronologies for Countries

Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of the post). This list seems relevant as Canada records two consecutive quarters of negative growth, French Q1 growth is revised to a small negative, and one Q2 nowcast for Euro Area is negative as of today. ECRI, a common source for business cycle chronologies, has not to my knowledge declared a turning point since the end of the pandemic-related recessions.

For single economies:

Cross country:

The methodologies differ, with varying degrees of judgmental input and input series; some observations in this post. In Chinn and Ferrara (2024), we relied upon the ECRI chronologies. There are numerous other approaches, including for the US Jim Hamilton’s time series approach applied to GDP [latest announcement].

2 thoughts on “Where to Find Business Cycle Chronologies for Countries”

  2. Macroduck

    Off topic – Bubblicious anecdotes:

    “An AI consultant tells Axios one of their clients recently spent half a billion dollars in a single month after failing to put usage limits on Claude licenses for employees.”

    https://www.axios.com/2026/05/28/ai-spending-roi-enterprise-costs

    Maybe it was Microsoft?

    “Microsoft is reportedly planning to reduce the use of Anthropic’s Claude Code — a move designed to push its employees toward GitHub Copilot CLI.”

    Also to save money:

    “Microsoft’s financial year is expected (sic) to end on June 30, which means canceling Claude Code licenses for its employees could cut its operational costs as it transitions into a new financial year.”

    https://tech.yahoo.com/ai/copilot/articles/microsoft-ditching-claude-code-copilot-133318848.html

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