Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Different Economies

Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations.

For single economies:

Cross country:

The methodologies differ, with varying degrees of judgmental input and input series; some observations in this post. In Chinn and Kucko (2015), we relied upon the ECRI chronologies. There are numerous other approaches, including for the US Jim Hamilton’s time series approach applied to GDP [latest announcement].

As an aside, here are six key macro indicators (at monthly frequency, as of 6/4) followed by the NBER BCDC:

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from May release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 6/1 for May nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (6/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.

Any leads to other agency/organization chronologies welcome.

Other individual studies discussed on Econbrowser:

 

 

4 thoughts on “Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Different Economies”

  1. Moses Herzog

    Don’t suppose I could convince you to overlay unemployment rate on top of those 6 key macro indicators??

    Do you think that say, by December of this year, we won’t see a jump in evictions, because of the fact rent owed was still due, and was accruing during the “moratorium”?? Both an increase in house evictions and rental evictions. How much good do you think that “moratorium” does for people whose debt owed is still accruing that entire time they have no job??

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