Oil (Brent) prices down, and so too gasoline and diesel. But not back to pre-War.
Figure 1: Brent avg of daily (black), regular gasoline (blue), and diesel (red), all in logs, 2/27/2026=0. Source: EIA via FRED, and author’s calculations.
That being said, Brent remains in (slight) contango with peak prices at November settlement.
cheapest gas I found was $3.19 at a convenience store. most of them are between $3.50 and $4.00 still. I am actually surprised the price has dropped this much. I heard a lot of chatter that physical scarcity would hit by end of June. at this time I am not hearing any chatter about physical scarcity. however, I cannot imagine that the strait has opened enough to change that trajectory. either the chatter was wrong and we had more reserves, or something else is going on? oil under $70 barrel should not exist with the current threats in the Middle East, imo. which is why I stay away from oil trades…cannot figure them out.
DOE, EIA puts a petroleum balance sheet out each Wednesday. Crude oil weekly inputs to U.S. refinery are unchanged since February. Finished fuel inventories are virtually even with same dates last year. Release from crude oil stocks and alleged intervention keeps futures contracts a lot less bullish. Trump has authorized release of up to 170 million barrels from SPR, so far nearly 100 million left to suppress crude prices. Maybe 30 to 45 more days. Then the SPR will be less than 259 million barrel.
US has modestly reduced crude imports, and maintain supply drawing down government and commercial crude stocks.
US has refrained from using high prices to reduce demand.
Helping US, China seems to have reduced crude imports as well.
There is some debate over when SPR salt domes and commercial tanks hit bottoms where crude is corrupted.
Crude passing through Hormuz is far below pre war and Israel is not helping the agreement to open Hormuz.
Many including Naked Capitalism suggest an energy cliff will happen when crude cannot meet the 17 million barrels a day US refinery demand.
Then finished fuel inventories will decline….