Confidence rises to 91.2, but below consensus (94.4), from downwardly revised level. Gallup also rises.

Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence level (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”; purple at US-Iran War. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.

Gallup highlights gasoline prices’ impact as a driver of confidence. The Conference Board mentions oil prices and inflation, but notes the deterioration in perceptions of the labor market prospects:

“Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month. However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%). Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now. This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes.”

Note the downward revision in May’s number is noticeable:

Figure 2: Conference Board Confidence Index from Jun (blue), from May (red). Source: Conference Board.

Expectations 6 months hence rose, perhaps reflecting the MOU penned during the month.

Source: Conference Board, June release.