Q2 GDP growth revised up 0.7 ppts, path of personal income ex-transfers up due to revised deflator. Here are the key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee:

Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2025M01=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2026Q2 3rd release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (9/2/2026 release), and author’s calculations.  

In the previous release of real personal income, January 2025 levels had not been reattained. As of today’s release, this measure was 1.6% above January 2025 levels.

The gap between output/income measures and employment indictors is hence thrown into yet sharper relief by the latest statistics.

Alternative indicators also buttress the argument for strong output growth.

Figure 2: Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept smoothed population controls, using experimental controls for 2025 (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (light green), real retail sales, CPI deflated (black), freight services indexes (brown), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2025M01=0. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED,  Philadelphia Fed, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2026Q2 3rd release, and author’s calculations.

The boom in consumption is notable. It grew at an annualized 6.6% in August. Although this is a preliminary figure, it reinforces the view that survey based assessments of the consumers’ mood — at deep lows right now — are not necessarily informative regarding actual consumption.