From Bloomberg:
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent named Judy Shelton, a former nominee to the Federal Reserve board and a onetime gold-standard enthusiast, as an adviser to counsel him on issues including China’s financial system.
Press release here.
Even in these surprising times, I am surprised by this appointment. Dr. Shelton has opined on wage rigidity, on the Soviet economy, on the veracity of government GDP statistics, on currency manipulation, crypto, and gold. But on China’s financial system?
in texas, the state is currently run by the the Boss Hogg Republican Party. their behavior is jarringly similar.
at the federal level, the country is run by Thanos. you know, the evil titan who wants to wipe out half of all life in the universe as an experiment to cleanse it of its ills. that is essentially the MO of the trump administration. kill most of modern society and start over in his image. shelton makes sense under this comparison.
Along with the proposal for the public execution I’m getting pretty numb to surprises from the Trump regime. Fortunately, our staunch ally, Vladimir Putin, will flood us with cheap diesel fuel in time for the midterm elections.
Maybe Shelton can help Bessent finally bring the bond market to heel. Perhaps every patriotic American can start mining for gold in their back yard.
Putin will sell about 500,000 tons of diesel to the world market in November – that is about what the US alone use in one day. He will first have to cancel his own ban on export of diesel fuel.
No extra fuel will be exported out of Russia as a result of Trumps idiotic surrender (in return for nothing). However, it will be a great propaganda tool for Putin and his Orange sock puppet – as they can claim that Ukraines attack on Russian refineries are preventing diesel from arriving in US (and causing higher prices at the pump).
I recall that the toddler-in-chief claimed to have made a “huge deal” for potash with Belarus, inly to have the Belarusian president say Belarusian potash was all spoken for already.
I don’t think Russia has any diesel to give. It wouldn’t arrive until after the election, so it doesn’t matter to the toddler whether Russia will send us diesel.
Speaking of elections, Nate Silver’s magic abacus now gives Republicans just a 1-in-4 chance of holding the Senate.
Treasury is running low on senior people right now:
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/bessent-treasury-tension-turnover-unmet-economic-goals-b552be0a
So are DOD and State, but that’s more or less by choice.
Shelton has no real experience as a China analyst. I know, I know, knowledge is overrated. Her role is as a currency advisor with a special focus on China. Bloomberg’s first paragraph misses that important point. China is always highlighted in Treasury’s FX-manipulators report, so naturally China is mentioned, but Treasury under Bessent has been active mostly elsewhere. Argentina and Japan have both come in for Treasury fX intervention under Bessent.
Shelton fancies herself an expert on international economics, but she is in fact mostly a “policy entrepreneur”, adjusting her policy recommendations depending on who is in power. Shelton is often said to be an economist, but her degrees are in business, not economics, and even some Republican Senators refused to confirm her to the Fed because of her weird economic notions.
I suspect Shelton has been named not because Bessent values her advice, but because she is a favorite of the felon-in-chief. He has nominated her for all kinds of jobs. Bessent knows enough about economics to know she’s a quack, but probably doesn’t care. The important question is whether she is allowed influence.
I predict that Bessent will end up working for the Trump boys after this gig is over, maybe directly, maybe as an outside partner in crime. Gotta get paid.
Well she’s smarter than Richie Rich Bessent. Low bar I know.
I doubt that any competent professional would want a job with the Trump administration – and that is a huge problem because competence matters. Just look at what the Trump clown parade has done with the Iran conflict, oil prices and interest rates. These are all things that knowledgeable and competent administrators could have handled much better.
You have to ask yourself what would be the plusses and minuses for a competent professional to take a political appointment with Trump.
Plusses: Opportunities for grift and handing out insider favors.
Some unpredictable opportunities to affect policies in the direction of your favorite ideology (if you can plant ideas in his head).
Minuses: Your professional reputation will forever be destroyed because of the things you are forced to say and do
You will have to suffer personal and professional humiliation, especially if you get too much in front of the cameras.
You are likely to be forced to brake the law and risk criminal prosecution later (or be discarded because you didn’t want to do that for Trump).
This is almost certainly a low paid short term gig, even if you avoid all the landmines and stay until the end of Trumps administration.
Well she’s smarter than Richie Rich Bessent. Low bar I know.
“Bessent knows enough about economics to know she’s a quack”
He knows very little about economics but yea he does know this.
Looks to me like this book from Mike Lewis, on the DOGE disaster, is putting some real human faces on that tragedy:
https://slate.com/culture/2026/10/trump-elon-musk-doge-us-government-spending-federal-workers-blockers-michael-lewis-book.html
Worth considering as an X-mas present to any MAGA relative you must give a present.
Elon is very much of the “move fast and break things” clan. DOGE is a great example. Layoffs and spending cuts were in many cases illegal, but some would stick, despite their illegality. So, moving faster than respect for the law would allow, and breaking governmental agencies, missions, and the law, all in one swell foop.
But the damage was wider than anticipated or desired, even by the DOGE kids. They often fired people who were critical to their own agenda, or to the toddler-in-chief’s agenda.
The DOGE kids aren’t alone in this hair-trigger idiocy. Just look at the decision to attack Iran, despite decades of our avoiding war with Iran. The toddler-in-chief’s hubris was on full display in his claim to be bolder and smarter than those previous presidents. Now, he’s mired in an on-again-off-again war that his ego won’t let him quit.
I’ve mentioned “Chesteron’s fence” before in comments, but it’s worth another mention. Arch conservative G.K. Chesterton warned against tearing down a fence merely because we don’t know what the fence is for. Only once we’ve bothered to discover what it’s for do we have enough knowledge to decide whether to tear it down. Put simply, our own ignorance should not be reason for undoing what has been done. This is the diametric opposite of “move fast and break things”.
There’s a bit of political economy behind these two opposote views of decision-making. If the status quo benefits the rich, then moving slowly can become a defense against harm to the rich. When the rich are instead trying to move too fast for the public, the courts and regulators to stop them, “Chesterton’s fence” is discarded. No wisdom behind either case, just money.
I think it’s a very common “arrogant idiot” approach for new outside leadership to come in and change things that the new leader doesn’t think makes sense. Good leaders take the time to find out why something was put in place “back then”. That takes more time but it avoids a lot of mistakes. Fresh eyes can be very good, but not without input from experience and institutional knowledge. As much as Musk is an example of how to fail, it looks like Mamdani has done an excellent job of knowledge based reform/restructuring.
The DOGE boys made that mistake to an absurd level. They literally put themselves behind closed doors and often refused to talk with anybody in the agency they presumably were there to make more efficient. These Musky Morons presumed that everybody in the agency were part of an inefficiency conspiracy, when reality is that most public employees want to improve their agencies.
Yeah. It’s entirely possible to understand policy options without being in office. Mamdani was in an office, but not the mayor’s office, before being elected. He had a head ful of knowledge and a rollodex full of advisors available to him on his very first day as mayor. Still lots to learn, but a good start. Elon was empty-headed, but too full of himself to know it.
The PBOC issued a statement on FX policy a couple of days ago. Here’s a summary:
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/money/economy/chinese-central-bank-s-yuan-policy-paper/ar-AA2dRfrX
China is hearing accusations of currency manipulation, and offering a rebuttal.
China and the EU have just finished up trade talks, with both sides indicating satisfaction. That doesn’t mean China’s FX defense isn’t aimed at the EU, but what with Shelton showing up at Treasury as an FX advisor, emphasis on China, the U.S. is probably the intended audience.
With the EU at least temporarily satisfied, China may see this as a good time to hash out FX concerns with the U.S. With endless trade actions against coming out of the U.S., a round of FX badgering is hardly a surprise, but I’m not sure what the U.S. side hopes to gain. China’s economy is in a slump, the U.S. is still growing, so a wider Chunes bilateral surplus is natural. China’s soy bean, rare earth and trade diversion tactics are well honed.
I don’t see where this is going.
“Judy Shelton Does Not Believe in US Government Statistics”. This must be why Bessett likes her. On a recent Faux New show the host noted how inflation is outpacing nominal wage increases so Bessett makes up a bunch of gibberish to insist real wages are rising. When Faux News calls out one’s lies it is time to call up Bruce Hall.
http://www.statista.com/chart/32428/inflation-and-wage-growth-in-the-united-states/
Real wages in the United States
Iran War Is a Major Setback for Real Wages in the U.S.
by Felix Richter, Aug 13, 2026
Excellent discussion with clear charts to have handy next time Richie Rich arrogantly spews his lies on the TV.
Trump claims that Zelensky could have ended the war many times. Sure, anybody can end a war by surrendering. Trump could end the Iran war tomorrow if he wanted.
Ukraine holds a serious “card” on Russia by blocking this “gas station with nukes” from selling its gas/diesel. The negotiations have been centered around using those cards to push Russia to stop its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The Orange “master” of the art of the deal destroyed that plan by handing all the cards to Putin in return for nothing. This is mind-blowingly stupid even by Trump standards.
Thank God (actually Biden) that we previously helped Ukraine to develop the weapons to fight Russia without any critical dependence on US. Their latest ballistic missile is going to be a huge advantage in hitting hardened targets deep into Russia.
Trump has declared an energy ceasefire apparently without telling Zelensky about it – and possibly also without letting Putin know. Zelensky has proposed such a deal many times before, so he would probably be fine with it. However, Putin has so far never even wanted to talk about it. If this is not just a fever dream from Trump, the details would be critical. What exactly are the targets off limits for each side?
Felon-in-chief: “Oil prices are a problem.”
Bessent/Rubio/Lutnick: “Oh, Sire, you didn’t cause this problem by attacking Iran!”
Felon: “What caused it?”
B/R/L: “Refineries! Diesel is the real problem, not oil, so you couldn’t be at fault.”
Felon: “Are you saying our manly, patriotic refineries are to blame?”
BRL: “No, no, no, Sire! Never. Russia’s refineries are the problem.”
Felon: “Are you saying my buddy Vlad, who gave me millions when my businesses went splat, is to blame?”
BRL: “No, no, no, Sire! Never! That rotten Zelensky is at it again, finding ways to fight back when Putin attacks civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. He’s attacking Putin’s main source of revenue in order to weaken Russia’s economy so Russia can’t kill Ukrainians quite so well. It’s Zelensky’s fault that U.S. diesel prices are high, not yours!”
Felon: “OK, I guess I’ll declare the war, which I ended they day after I was elected, over. Again.”
Next day…
BRL: “Sir, the war isn’t over.”
Felon: F<=&$(@g Zelensky!!!"
First Trump violates the constituition by banning press members from the White House whose reporting he disapproves. Then he turns around and sics the DOJ on ABC,NBC, CBS, CNN and Fox for refusing to cover Trump unless they all can as a violation of antitrust and collusion.
So you cover Trump and you are banned, and you don’t cover Trump and you are prosecuted. It’s a Kafka world — or is that Catch 22?
The press has the leverage here if they only have the courage to do so. Trump is addicted to press coverage and can’t live without it.
CBO chief warns it’s ‘probably not plausible’ that a strong economy alone can steady U.S. debt as 5%-6% growth is needed—more than Bessent’s 3% view
http://www.yahoo.com/finance/economy/policy/articles/cbo-chief-warns-probably-not-225428178.html
In other words little Richie Rich Bessett can’t do basic arithmetic.
Way-the-heck off topic – adding poison to food:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/10/fda-toxic-chemicals-food-analysis?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
“The new proposed TOR [a parts-per-million “threshold of regulation”] expansion would allow companies to use the chemicals as an ingredient added directly to food, as flavorings, preservatives, emulsifiers, processing aids, enzymes, stabilizers and binders, and for myriad other uses, in ultra-processing.”
The food industry has lobbied to allow poisons in food. RFK and the grifter-in-chief are ready to let them. ‘Cause profits, yeah know.
Best not eat any processed food, y’all.
Speaking of currencies, big interest rate changes and big terms of trade changes (oil and fertilizer) inevitably lead to FX strains, so it’s good to know we has someone as good as Shelton giving advice to someone as good as Bessent. India is on the bubble:
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-central-bank-takes-steps-support-rupee-opens-dollar-window-oil-companies-2026-10-10/
The Inr/Usd slope is pretty alarming:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Zx3e
India is big, and trades quite a bit with the rest of the world, so whatever is happening will spread. That’s on top of every other country’s troubles with oil and fertilizers and interest rates.
The good news regarding likely spill-over from India’s currency losses is that India’s largest trading partners are mostly big economies which can absorb any shock India is likely to induce. India’s rop five export markets are the U.S., UAE, The Netherlands, China and the UK. India’s top 5 sources of imports are China, the UAE, the U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Those imports, by country, are manufacured goods, energy, energy and services, energy and gold, and energy.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112
If you go back to early 2004 Bruce Hall was all Biden hating over hamburger beer costing $5 a pound. Yea – the price rose to all of $5.50 a pound in the next year. So Trump was his man. Oh wait – this price is now $7 a pound which means Brucie boy is all vegan now.
Of course Trump wants to import foreign beef with no tariffs, no health restrictions, and no concerns for Nebraskans who raise cattle. And it seems all this flip flopping might cost the GOP the state.
But have no fear Kennedy Jr. has decided lots of beef is MAHA. So Brucie boy might just have to eat more Big Macs. Beef is a complicated issue.
Gasp!!! Don’t say beefvis complicated! We don’t do complicated. Complicated is for “experts” and “liberals” and “bureaucrats”.
Beef is simple. You give use water to farm alfalfa in the desert while rationing water to cities, let ranchers run cattle on public land at below-market cost, prohibit imports, allow imports, prohibit some imports but not others, poke cattle full of antibiotics so they can eat calories and protein utterly alien to their natural diet, ignore climate change… See? Simple.
Hall and Woodford. “for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation.”
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2026/summary/
Woodford’s most noted work is the treatise Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy, recipient of the 2003 Association of American Publishers Award for Best Professional/Scholarly Book in Economics. He is also co-author or co-editor of several other volumes, including a three-volume Handbook of Macroeconomics (with John B. Taylor), a two-volume Handbook of Monetary Economics (with Benjamin M. Friedman), The Inflation Targeting Debate (with Ben S. Bernanke), and the textbook International Macroeconomics (with Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and Martin Uribe).
rehall.people.stanford.edu/all-publications
A lot of Hall’s writings involving either consumption demand or the role of tax policy on economic growth. No wonder Hoover loves this scholar.
Off topic – brown shirts:
https://apnews.com/article/ilhan-omar-home-searched-8e18c2aea948bd90f4d7a4eb32b9ec3a
Omar is brown, female, progressive and Muslim, so naturally, her home was invaded by federal agents. The pretext is a fraud investigation of her father, who died 6 years ago.
Republicans have trafficked in various rumors about Omar’s immigration status, none substantiated. She is from Somalia, a country which the felon-in-chief routinely shows up in the felon’s diatribes against immigrants.
Next door in Michigan, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers recently made up a bunch of stuff about his Muslim opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, being associated with terrorists.
The U.S. has a two-party political system. One of the parties is racist to its roots, employs goons to harrass its political opponents and violates the civil rights of U.S. residents on a daily basis. The other one backs health care funding for the poor.
If they are going to investigate immigration violations affecting naturalization, when are they going to look at Melenia and Elon?
White people OK. Brown people TERRORISTS. Stephen Miller said so.
Nope. Omar is a entitled brat who is anti-Israel. Nothing else matters. Its useless nonsense. Real brownshirts would be destroying Wall Street, ending cosmopolitan decadence of the bourgeoisie. Restoring tribal rule over individual rights.
Racist much?
http://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/ted-cruz-warns-democrats-want-003007730.html
Ted Cruz is predicting $10 a gallon gasoline prices if Dems win the Congress. Yea – his economic advisor is Steve Koptis.
A contrast exists between her previous focus and this new role. I noticed that her earlier views on monetary policy seemed quite different.