The BLS reported on Friday that the U.S. unemployment rate fell all the way to 6.3% in April. That marks significant progress in terms of the bull’s eye of Fed accountability proposed by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans which Econbrowser discussed 2 months ago. The unemployment rate has dropped steadily over the last 4 years with no increase so far in the inflation rate.
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Author Archives: James_Hamilton
U.S. growth stalls
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP only grew at a 0.1% annual rate in the first quarter. Some of the reasons for an economic stall appear to be temporary, but it’s a very disappointing start to the year nonetheless.
Oil and gasoline prices: many still missing the big picture
Gasoline prices in the United States have risen sharply recently, leading some newspapers to round up the usual suspects.
Impressions of Russia
My wife and I spent last week in Russia, giving some lectures at the New Economic School and the International College of Economics and Finance and touring Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Here are some of the things I saw that surprised me.
2014 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge winner
Congratulations to James Gualtieri, winner of the world famous Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge.
The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy
Last week ECB President Mario Draghi revealed that the European Central Bank has been considering large-scale asset purchases as a tool to prevent European inflation from falling too far below the ECB’s target rate of 2%. What is the evidence for the effectiveness of these policies, and are there any risks?
Tight oil making a difference
Oil produced from tight formations in the United States inaccessible before the days of horizontal fracturing is now accounting for 4.3% of total global crude oil production, according to new estimates released by the EIA last week.
Graphs of key economic trends
Here are some graphs of economic data that illustrate some interesting trends.
2014 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge
It may be snowing back east, but March Madness has arrived just the same. Time to invite everyone to test your uncanny ability to predict the outcome of the U.S. college mens’ basketball tournament. Field seems particularly wide open this year. If you want to participate, go to the Econbrowser group at ESPN, do some minor registering to create a free ESPN account if you haven’t used that site before, and fill in your bracket with who you think might be the winners of each game. Just be sure you complete your predictions before Thursday, because the Econbrowser group does not allow changes in your bracket after the round of 65 begins on Thursday.
Addressing growing student debt
Mortgage and credit card debt today are lower than they were before the Great Recession. But the dollar value of outstanding student loans has surged, growing from 4% of GDP in 2007 to over 7% today.