The Fed has begun implementing its new communication strategy. Here’s what the message seems to be.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
U.S. GDP: not a recession, but still not very encouraging
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.8% during the fourth quarter of 2011. That’s better than any of the previous 5 quarters, which tells you more about how disappointing the previous year and a half has been than it does about how great the fourth quarter was. The average historical growth rate for the U.S. economy over the last 60 years has been about 3.2%.
Wealth creation
Here’s my suggestion for how to become rich: buy low and sell high.
Links for 2012-01-18
FT Alphaville on crude oil and the eurozone crisis.
“http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2012/01/evaluating-recession-forecasts.html”>Jeff Miller does not buy into recent forecasts of a U.S. recession. On a related note, Bonddad deconstructs the ECRI Weekly Leading Index.
VoxEu notes the systematic international tendency for official deficit figures to understate the magnitude of the change in public debt.
Liberty Street Economics on forecasting with internet search data.
Iranian oil embargo
Reducing Petroleum Consumption from Transportation
MIT Professor Christopher Knittel has a new paper on the potential for the United States to reduce petroleum consumption.
Current economic conditions
The latest U.S. economic indicators have taken a favorable turn.
On the burden of government debt
I didn’t have time for a lengthy discussion of this issue, so will have to settle for some quick links of interest.
Getting the U.S. economy growing
We can sit and wring our hands, or we can get to work.
U.S. net exports of petroleum products
One big story of 2011 was the United States switched from being a net importer to a net exporter of petroleum products. Here are the details behind that development.