Author Archives: James_Hamilton

Why not abolish the Fed and return to the gold standard?

Via Mike Shedlock, this item from MarketWatch caught my eye:

Newt Gingrich said that if elected president, he’d name [James] Grant to help run a commission looking at a possible return to the gold standard. And Ron Paul said, if elected president, he’d go all-in and name Grant– one of Wall Street’s best-known gold bugs– as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve….

“Unfortunately, I haven’t heard from Mr. Romney yet,” joked Grant when I called on him in his offices down on Wall Street. “I’m sitting by the phone, I’m ready.”

I presume that Grant would be advising any would-be policy-makers who listen to him the sort of thing that he wrote in 2010:

The classical gold standard, the one that was in place from 1880 to 1914, is what the world needs now. In its utility, economy and elegance, there has never been a monetary system like it.

I thought it would be worthwhile reviewing some of the reasons why I disagree with Grant on this point.

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U.S. GDP: not a recession, but still not very encouraging

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.8% during the fourth quarter of 2011. That’s better than any of the previous 5 quarters, which tells you more about how disappointing the previous year and a half has been than it does about how great the fourth quarter was. The average historical growth rate for the U.S. economy over the last 60 years has been about 3.2%.

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Links for 2012-01-18

FT Alphaville on crude oil and the eurozone crisis.

“http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2012/01/evaluating-recession-forecasts.html”>Jeff Miller does not buy into recent forecasts of a U.S. recession. On a related note, Bonddad deconstructs the ECRI Weekly Leading Index.

VoxEu notes the systematic international tendency for official deficit figures to understate the magnitude of the change in public debt.

Liberty Street Economics on forecasting with internet search data.