Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and Sohaib Nasim. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Eve
Baker, Bloom and Davis and Caldara et al. measures:
Instantaneous Core Inflation Again Rising
Though not quite to February rates:
CRFB CEA Watch
State of the Macroeconomy: GDP, Key Indicators as of 7/31
Following up on Jim’s post on the GDP release yesterday, looking at different aspects of economic activity:
Final Nowcast for Q2
Atlanta Fed nowcast incorporating advance economic indicators indicates 2.9% q/q AR, up from 2.4%. The news is in final sales to private domestic purchasers.
Forecasts: CEA >> IMF > WSJ
From IMF’s July World Economic Outlook, released today:
A Quasi-Real Time Measure of the Average Effective Tariff Rate
The Yale Budget Lab regularly (’cause… Trump) updates the stated effective tariff rate. But what’s the actual effective tariff rate in effect given all the threats, pauses, etc.? Not sure? Fortunately, Paweł Skrzypczyński is on the case:
Conference Board: Economic Confidence Up (a Little)
The Conference Board today:
Gerard Baker: “If Trump’s Tariffs Are So Bad, Where’s the Recession?”
That question was posed in the WSJ, and poses three possible answers: