Third release on GDP. We now have a reading on GDO, as well as an updated view on GDP+.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
GDPNow Bouncing near Zero
From Atlanta Fed today:
Conference Board: “US Consumer Confidence tumbled again in March”
Conference Board confidence index at 92.9 vs. 94.2 consensus. Here’s confidence vs. U.Mich sentiment (all standardized).
“the stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions”
As attributed to Paul Samuelson. So, with trepidation, I show the SP500 and CAPE over the last half decade:
When Will EJ Antoni End His Recession Call?
EJ Antoni concludes we’re in a recession, and elsewhere, have been since 2022. On the other hand, he argues (rightly) that we shouldn’t take a face value GDPNow’s reading for Q1.
Guest Contribution: “No Mar-A-Lago Accord March 22, 2025”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version, was published by Project Syndicate.
Vogue Magazine on Imminent Recession
FT-Booth Macro Survey on GDP Growth vs. Nowcasts, and Recession Start-Dates
The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey (see this post for comparison to FOMC SEP, the median entry is 1.7%). The average 90th/10th bounds are also interesting, in that large downside risks are perceived.
FT-Booth March Survey and the FOMC SEP: GDP’s Trajectory
The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey. The FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) median 2025 GDP growth is 1.7%, down from 2.1% in the December SEP.
Jeffrey Frankel: “Where next for U.S. economy?”
In the Harvard Gazette today, and interview with Frankel: