From the abstract to the paper:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Policy Uncertainty in the US, Globally
as measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis’s EPU. I was in Europe, and conversations were in high gear about how things now seemed. And text mining confirms:
AP: “Trump begins firings of FAA air traffic control staff just weeks after fatal DC plane crash”
Article here.
The Russian Economy: How Many Contingent Liabilities?
It seems like a funny question to ask given Russian government debt to GDP isn’t that large. Craig Kennedy argues that taking into account forced bank lending means that (contingent) government liabilities are much larger than conventionally-defined public liabilities (report here). The summary:
A Trade War Interpreted in a Blanchard IS-LM Model
I was promised an all-out trade war by Trump, and all I got was a lousy 10% tariff on China, and promises of a concept of a plan for reciprocal tariffs. Well, maybe re-arranging my syllabus will still pay off, if Trump gets his act together for destroying the post-War liberal economic order. Notes for a Trade War (cf. Blanchard, Macroeconomics, latest edition).
“Trump administration wants to un-fire nuclear safety workers but can’t figure out how to reach them”
From NBC. I’d say emblematic of the smash and attempt to repair approach of the Trump 2.0 administration.
Economists, Some Consumers, Believe Y/Y Inflation Will Rise
Michigan Survey of Consumers and yesterday’s release of the Survey of Professional Forecasters agree.
Who Gave this Guy an Economics Ph.D. (cont’d)?
Remember when Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni posted on X this graph?
NBER BCDC and Alternative Business Cycle Indicators for January
In the first set, industrial production continues to rise (as did employment). In the second set, while civilian employment and civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept rose, manufacturing output flat, and real retails sales fell noticeably.
Manufacturing Productivity When Tariffs Last Bloomed
Going to be some outrageously crazy arguments about the merits of tariffs coming. Just to remind people, higher measured productivity is not one of the plausible outcomes.