And other NBER BCDC indicators.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
100 Day Marker: Economic Optics Not Great
GDPNow at -1.5% q/q AR. But final sales to domestic purchasers little changed.
A Timeline for Recession?
Torsten Slok’s VTRR (Voluntary Trade Reset Recession):
Safe No More? Two Pictures
Prepping slides for macro, found these interesting correlations.
More Nowcasts
As of today:
Guest Contribution: “China’s Electronics Exports, Tariffs, and Relocating Production to the U.S.”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
Republicans Seem Near-Impervious to Economic News
From the Michigan survey (final):
Business Cycle Indicator Sit-Rep
A reader asks me about my 2025H1 recession call. I don’t have one, but here’s the latest depiction of indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, as well as alternatives. Only consumption and vehicle miles traveled (and heavy truck sales) seem indicative of recession (maybe GDP using GDPNow).
Envisaging a 40% Decline in Long Beach Container Traffic
Recession Now? The Message from (Final rev’d) Michigan Expectations vs. PMI and CISS
Updating this post, probability of recession in April is 72%.