Impact on a typical family:
Source: Brendan Duke, CAP.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Farmers of the Nation, Unite! You Have Nothing to Lose but Possible Retaliation against Soybeans and Corn
From the National Corn Growers Association:
U.S. soybeans and corn are prime targets for tariffs. As the top two export commodities for our country, together they account for about one-fourth of total U.S. agricultural export value. As such, a repeated tariff-based approach to addressing trade with China places a target on both U.S. soybeans and corn. Farmers and rural economies pay the price as a result.
Recession after the Election?
Charles Payne joins the recession camp.
Prediction Markets Moving on “News” (on One Poll)
Apparently, one poll in Iowa has moved PredictIt. Harris v Trump, 52-53 now flipped to 57-50.
UMich Sentiment Catching Up with the (Good Economic) News?
From TradingEconomics on 10/25:
Business Cycle Indicators as of November’s Start
Employment for October and monthly GDP for September, in the set of variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC:
The Employment Release: Downside Surprise, Signifying?
NFP +12K vs. consensus +106K, private NFP -28K vs. +90K; but wage growth (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and average weekly hours both above (34.3 vs. 34.2).
Prediction Markets, FWIW
Reversion, seen over the past month. Why? Unclear given small movements in swing state polls.
“The Economy would grow under Harris. Under Trump, expect higher prices and debt.”
By Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch
A Harris administration is far less likely to disrupt the ongoing and unprecedented American economic recovery of the last three years with stark policy reversals. This is an expanded version of an op-ed published in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Private NFP Nowcast
Based on ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series for October.