The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index is out, 2.1% m/m annualized (2.6% y/y):
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
“The economists’ word of the year”
From Kristin Schwab and Sofia Terenzio on Marketplace on New Year’s Eve:
Year End Disinversion: Bull or Bear Steepening?
With December 31 data, here’s the picture of term spreads:
Year in Review, 2024: Mendacity and Economic Incompetence, Equal Parts
I thought I was getting a little jaded, but the likes of Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni, the WisGOP, and Steve Kopits reaffirmed my faith in how much work remains.
What If? Thoughts on the No Excess Demand Scenario
It’s become commonplace to assert that the passage of the American Rescue Plan ignited inflation, dooming the prospects for the Biden and Harris candidacies. Consider this piece:
“Revisiting the Relationship Between Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates”
From CBO, a working paper by Andre R. Neveu (FDIC) and Jeffrey Schafer (CBO) on the debt sensitivity of the interest rate (DSIR):
Intra-industry Trade Estimated
Oren Cass argues the idea of comparative advantage driving trade is outdated. I agree to a certain extent, but he doesn’t explain why. I’d say intra-industry trade (IIT) – a staple of academic research since the 1980s – is one reason, but that does not provide justification for protection. In fact, his ignorance of IIT suggests his case for protectionism is ill-founded.
When Econ 101 Isn’t Enough: Oren Cass on Trade
In Tuesday’s NYT, Oren Cass makes the case for protectionism.
Sentiment, Confidence, and Expectations: The Latter Is Down
U.Michigan consumer sentiment and Conference Board economic confidence rise. But expectations drop.
Maheshri and Winston: “The U.S.’s Decades Long 2nd Great Depression”
In RealClearPolitics, a provocative thesis, from Vikram Maheshri (U. Houston) and Cliff Winston* (Brookings):