Or more correctly, in Mr. Trump. As reported by Bloomberg, Mr. Trump has said:
“a gentleman that likes raising interest rates in the Fed, we have a gentleman that loves quantitative tightening in the Fed, we have a gentleman that likes a very strong dollar in the Fed.”
Has manufacturing value added increased above what was expected, in response to the (costly) Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit? Comparing against Minnesota (which did not implement such a measure) suggests no.
Continuing the commitment to amplifying the voices of female artists across multiple mediums, this year’s Time’s Arrow festival juxtaposes old and new stories of the biblical figure Susanna. Exploring sensitive themes of our time, the festival includes the fully staged world premiere of the new opera Artemisia (composer Laura Schwendinger, librettist Ginger Strand and Stage Director Christopher Alden) and concerts of Handel’s Susanna as Trinity continues its presentation of the composer’s oratorios. Artemisia tells the story of the Baroque artist who portrayed herself as Susanna in her famous painting Susanna and the Elders.
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on February 25th.
Continue readingBack a little over a year ago, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Today’s release of the 2018Q3 state GDP figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred.
Continue readingRecessions, once they are underway, happen fast — a lot faster than expansions. Who’s forecasting recessions, according to the WSJ February survey (the February Survey of Professional Forecasters has been postponed until March because of the data delays associated with the Trump government shutdown).
Continue readingI don’t think so. But you be the judge:
Continue readingIs this what we want the Chinese to peg against?
Continue readingPart of the yield curve is already inverted.
Continue readingAs the administration pushes for “stability” in the Chinese exchange rate while imposing tariffs on China, it might be useful to recount the various ways in which different observers define currency “misalignment”. Here I update a primer first posted in 2010.
Continue reading