That’s the title of an op-ed appearing in Nikkei newspaper (日本経済新聞):
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Out of Sample Regression Prediction of Mass Shooting Fatalities
Does a Trump dummy “work”? Reader sam writes:
i think you’re putting too much weight into too few observations.
Some things to make your analysis more convincing 1) show the if predictive accuracy increased with a trump dummy OUT OF SAMPLE or 2) try placing the ‘trump dummy’ variable a few months before or a few months after and see if that changes the coefs. i doubt you’ll see much of an effect.
Three Graphs and a Regression Equation
And we are less than one-third of the way through November.
Arkansas and Missouri Minimum Wage Increases Contextualized
Arkansas and Missouri voted to raise minimum wages. Time to worry? Here’s a graphical depiction of CPI-deflated minimum wage up to September, and into 2021.
“Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies”
That’s the title of a new volume released today, edited by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge.
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Why Kobach Lost
This graph of Kansas employment during the Brownback years is suggestive.
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Time Series Evidence on the Minimum Wage Impact in Minnesota vs. Wisconsin
- Is the partial derivative of fast food employment with respect to the minimum wage negative? Maybe, maybe not.
- Does a higher minimum wage decrease young adult employment? Maybe, maybe not.
- Does a higher minimum wage raise fast food restaurant prices? Not noticeably.
These conclusions (reported in this working paper written by Louis Johnston and me) stand in contrast to those obtained by Noah Williams, and reported in this CROWE Policy Brief.
US Goods Exports and Trade Policy Uncertainty
At a minimum, trade policy uncertainty has risen. Whether that has resulted in the stagnation in exports is an open question.
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Scenes from Artemisia: An Opera of Passion, Betrayal and Art
This Saturday, the Center for Contemporary Opera presents scenes from an opera composed by Laura Schwendinger, libretto by Ginger Strand.
Mass Shooting Casualties through 28 October
Regression 1982q4-2018q3:
f = -18.52 + 0.028pop + 5.182trump
Adj.R2 = 0.18, N = 144, DW = 2.07, bold denotes significance at 10% msl using HAC robust standard errors.
Where f denotes mass shooting fatalities, pop is population in millions, trump is a dummy variable for Trump administration.
One can interpret this as follows: a Trump administration quarter is associated with 5.2 greater fatalities from mass shootings, or 20.8 on an annualized basis. (Over 1982q4-16q4, the average frequency per quarter is 4.876). Inclusion of a deterministic time trend yields a negative coefficient on population, and a trump coefficient (4.093) significant at 11% msl.