There is a lot of discussion of how economic slack is fast disappearing, and I expect a lot of push on this view, given continued rapid growth in GDP as reported in today’s second release for 2014Q3. This view seems counter to (1) the CBO estimate of potential GDP and (2) the slow pace of inflation. My suggestion is that there remains a substantial amount of slack out there.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Downgraded: The Macro Outlook in Wisconsin
The Department of Revenue’s Wisconsin Economic Outlook, released last week, details a noticeable deterioration in forecasted economic performance, in just the past eight months.
What have the nonpartisan research agencies ever done for us?
Updated 11/24 2:45PM Pacific to include a list of candidates the GOP is mulling to replace Elmendorf, including Bill Beach (!!!)
(For the youth of today, here is the reference.)
Some Observations on the Wisconsin Employment Outlook
The Walker Administration’s Economic Outlook forecasts private employment in January 2015 will be 115 thousand below the goal set forth by Governor Walker in August 2013. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment will not reattain prior peak levels until 2015Q2.
The Japanese GDP Release: The Bad and the Not so Bad
Instead of a 0.2% q/q increase as in the WSJ survey, GDP declined 0.4% [0] [1] It’s pretty bad news, but here are a couple of observations, following up on my previous post on Japan.
Preventing a Global Slowdown
Action is needed in the eurozone and Japan, according to the Treasury Secretary.
IMF Annual Research Conference on “Cross-Border Spillovers”
The proceedings start tomorrow (Thursday).
(Fiscally) Bleeding Kansas
The deterioration in Kansas state finances not only continues unabated — it is seemingly accelerating.
Known Unknowns in International Finance
Implications for the dollar’s trajectory
Lunatic Fringe Alert: Government Statistics Edition
Longtime reader Ricardo (aka Dick/DickF/RicardoZ) writes:
…Our government is doing a serious disservice by falsifying the employment condition in our country. Policy changes that could actually help are being delayed with false information.