Private nonfarm payroll employment in continues to rise, by 166,000; December 2012 employment is revised up by 0.6% (log terms), when incorporating the benchmark revision (0.5% for total nonfarm payroll employment).
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The 2012Q4 GDP Release: Upside and Downside Risks
Defense spending subtracted considerably; more to come if the sequester occurs. Uncertainty weighs—perhaps. Trade volumes decline. But final sales continue upward. And confusion about demand side analysis persists.
Currency Wars in the Era of Unconventional Monetary Policies
Interpreting Monetary Policy’s Impact on Exchange Rates (and Economic Activity)
Guest Contribution: “Monetary Alchemy, Fiscal Science”
Today, we’re very fortunate to have as a guest contributor Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. His weblog can be found here.
Dispatches XXIV: Please Proceed Governor (Walker)
There has been something of a dispute between Governor Walker and Governor Dayton of Minnesota. From Minnesota Public Radio, Governor Walker’s tweet, in response to Governor Dayton’s speech:
The Wages of Austerity, Yet Again: “Britain’s economy flirts with “triple dip” recession”
From Reuters:
The country’s gross domestic product fell 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday, sharper than a 0.1 percent decline forecast by analysts.
The Macroeconomic Task Ahead
Guest Contribution: “Debt Ceilings, Bombs, Cliffs and the Trillion Dollar Coin”
Today, we’re very fortunate to have as a guest contributor Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. His weblog can be found here.
Great Moments in Policy Analysis: Heritage on the Debt Ceiling
From the Heritage Foundation, today:
Very simply, reaching the debt limit means spending is limited by revenue arriving at the Treasury and is guided by prioritization among the government’s obligations. How the government would decide to meet these obligations under the circumstances is a matter of some conjecture. Certainly, vast inflows of federal tax receipts—inflows that far exceed amounts needed to pay monthly interest costs on debt—would continue. Thus, the government would never be forced to default on its debt because of a lack of income. [emphasis added – MDC]
How to Induce Explosive Debt Dynamics
The debt ceiling and implications of:
”We Republicans need to be willing to tolerate a temporary, partial government shutdown.”
and more recently