The news from the European core of near zero growth shouldn’t have been so surprising. [1] [2] Growth is slowing in the US and abroad. Why are some US policymakers so dead set on withdrawing stimulus?
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Governor Perry on Monetary Policy
From the Washington Post:
…”If this guy [Fed Chairman Bernanke] prints more money between now and the election, I don’t know what y’all would do to him in Iowa, but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas. Printing more money to play politics at this particular time in American history is almost treacherous, or treasonous, in my opinion.”
Chinn and Swagel on Radio Times: “Economic News Roundup”
This morning, I was a guest on WHYY’s Radio Times with Marty Moss Coane. The other panelist was Phill Swagel, and topics covered the stock market, the stimulus, and the state of the economy. One can hear the podcast here: [mp3].
Still Waiting for Expansionary Fiscal Contraction in the UK
And Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead (with apologies to the under 35 set).
Since in the U.S. we are currently embarking upon a program of reducing fiscal stimulus, it seems useful to examine whether this action would result in rapid economic growth as some have predicted. The UK is at the forefront of conducting this fiscal experiment.
Facing Reality
And dispensing with childish things, such as the belief that our economic future can be secured by spending cuts alone. From “The Downgrading of a Debtor Nation”, by me and Jeffry Frieden, in today’s New York Times:
THE Treasury can cry foul all it wants, but the decision by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade America’s credit rating by one notch last Friday, and the subsequent plunge in the stock market, are serious symptoms of a loss of confidence — an assessment that is fundamentally political, not economic.
Joe Gagnon: “A Plan for Action on Jobs”
Joe Gagnon (formerly associate director of Monetary Affairs, and of International Finance, Divisions at the Fed) of the Peterson Institute for International Affairs has had enough with the policy paralysis . From Stop Sticking Our Heads in the Sand! A Plan for Action on Jobs:
…our leaders have been in denial about the true nature and magnitude of the problem. The ongoing stock market anxiety surely must wake them up.
The S&P Downgrade and Tax Revenue Increases (or lack thereof)
There is plenty of commentary on the S&P decision, including S&P’s difficulties with math, but I do find of salience this part of the release:
Is the Jobs Mystery Solved?
Professor Scott Sumner says “No more jobs mystery. Period. End of story.”. I’m not so certain.
From the post:
If I hear one more discussion of the mysterious lack of jobs I’ll explode. The new GDP numbers are the final nail in the coffin. For years I’ve been saying there is no jobs mystery. That any deviation from Okun’s Law was minor compared to the scale of the output collapse. With the new RGDP figures we now know I was right, there isn’t and never was any mystery as to why there are so few jobs. RGDP is very low. Period. End of story.
Livin’ in a Shapiro-Stiglitz World
I have been wondering why so many seem to be indifferent to the plight of the unemployed. Sometimes, the attitude is not so much indifference, but rather irritation that the poor are exempted from the burdens of society (see e.g., [0]).
Here is a plot of the unemployment rate and the alternative unemployment rate including marginally attached and part-time workers.
Income Share by Top Fractile (continued)
Or, why it was so important to keep top marginal income tax rates constant for millionaires.
Figure 1 depicts the income shares accruing to the top 0.5 percent and top 0.1 percent of households (including realized capital gains). It is clear that their shares have declined going from 2007 to 2008; for the top 0.1%, their share has declined from 12.3% to 10.4% of total income.