David Leonhardt had an interesting post noting how low core inflation had been, in historical context. In fact, many measures of inflation are at very low levels, indeed close to zero.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
An Alternative Look at the Employment Situation
Two Competing Views on America’s Economic Future
Or, Palin and Eichengreen on Infrastructure Investment
In a recent speech, Sarah Palin, stated that:
… “The federal government is spending too much, borrowing too much, growing and controlling too much,” she said.
Joe Lawler Does Economic Analysis, Again
I had thought that after these posts [1] [2] [3] [4], Mr. Lawler had foregone further attempts at macroeconomic analysis. Alas, no. In Obama’s Job Search, Mr. Lawler states:
The Financial Crisis: Foreseeable and Preventable
From the NY Times Room for Debate forum Was the Crisis Avoidable, Jeffry Frieden writes:
The Real Value of the Yuan and Inflation
A recent NYT article highlighted the fact that international competitiveness (as defined by macroeconomists) depends on not just the nominal exchange rate, but also relative price levels. From Inflation in China May Limit U.S. Trade Deficit by Keith Bradsher:
Inflation is starting to slow China’s mighty export machine, as buyers from Western multinational companies balk at higher prices and have cut back their planned spring shipments across the Pacific.
Thoughts on Rebalancing, Capital Flows, Commodities
Those were some of the topics of a recent Asia-Europe Economic Forum conference that took place at the French Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry, entitled “G20: Completing the Agenda”, organized by Agnès Bénassy-Quéré and co-sponsored by CEPII, DG-ECFIN, and the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry.
UK: No Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Yet
The UK can be seen as a kind of test case for the proposition that contractionary fiscal policy can induce an economic expansion, a proposition forwarded by most recently Alesina and Ardana (2010) [wp version] (following up earlier work by Alesina and Perroti). So far, admittedly early in the process, the evidence is not consistent with the view of expansionary contraction. Here’s Gavyn Davies’ view:
…The statistics were expected to show a significant slowdown in output growth, but nothing like the drop of 0.5% in real GDP (-2 per cent quarter-on-quarter annualised) which was actually announced this morning. …
Chinese Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Jian Wang had an interesting article on the Chinese rebalancing issue, and how renminbi revaluation would fit in. One point he raised pertained to exchange rate pass through. That inspired me to check the literature on this subject.
Three Years after the Great Recession’s Start
I thought it useful to take a look at a few retrospective macro indicators pertaining the December 2010, three years after the beginning of what some term “the Great Recession”. In particular, recall that some observers were, even ten months into the recession, and a month after Lehman’s collapse, denying the possibility of a truly deep loss in employment, and the idea of a lack of credit availability.