Tables 1.3 and 1.4 (tables) in Chapter 1 bear particularly close attention, although the entire text is useful.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Hi Frequency Output Indicators
The advance release for 2009Q1 GDP will come out on April 29. Until then, we have some readings from the monthly GDP nowcasts, two of which were released on April 15. e-Forecasting identifies an annualized 9.6% decline in first quarter GDP. Macroeconomic Advisers (whose monthly estimates only extend to February) writes “Our latest tracking estimate of a 5.1% decline in GDP in the first quarter includes a 1.2% decline in monthly GDP in March, reflecting a partial reversal in net exports and weakness in PCE and inventory investment.” A lot hinges, then, on what happens to net exports.
The Allocation of Stimulus Funds
From Daniel Wilson, “Are Fiscal Stimulus Funds
Going to the ‘Right’ States?” at the SF Fed (h/t Torsten Slok at DB):
…While
it is too early to tell whether the overall stimulus
package will have its intended effects, this review
suggests that, by and large, the distribution of federal
stimulus funds is indeed tilted toward those states most
likely to spend the funds quickly and effectively.
How Bad Is This Recession? And Why? — Illustrated Version
Chapter 3 of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook has a great summary figure:
Macroeconomic Schisms
There has been a lot of breast-beating in the press and in the blogosphere about how economists failed to discern the possibility that not all was going well in the years leading up the current financial and economic crisis [1]. I think the notion that all economists were blithely optimistic has been dispelled (well, okay, here’s a couple of exceptions: Dan Gross h/t Free Exchange, A. Kaletsky). At the risk of some gross simplifications, I will speculate that there was —
until recently — less optimism among academic macroeconomists than Wall Street economists. There was probably less anxiety among
say finance professors who focused on asset pricing (as opposed those who worked in banking) than macroeconomists (Dani Rodrik highlights the diversity). One divide that
I think is not particularly relevant in locating the source of the crisis is the most well known one — specifically whether prices
are sticky.
In my opinion, the big divide in thinking relates to how economists conceive of financial markets working. This is a divide that cuts across other divides. For instance, the Hicksian
decomposition (IS-LM), in its simplest incarnation, treats the financial world as one wherein bonds are identical, and the only means of borrowing; there is no separate channel for lending, say via bank loans, to influence aggregate demand (see this post for the many channels of monetary policy). In the real business cycle literature, and many New Keynesian DSGE models, there is a representative bond (and lending rate) which summarizes the asset markets (see Camilo Tovar’s survey of DSGEs for a discussion).
IMF World Economic Outlook
Is out…
- Link to webpage.
- Link to Chapter 3. From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong?
- Link to Chapter 4. How Linkages Fuel the Fire: The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies (a preview of some results was in this post).
The Demise of the Dollar? Should We Worry about Quantitative Easing and Deficit Spending?
Over the weekend, I was working on my long delayed manuscript on exchange rate modeling [0], and pondering how useful the conventional econometric techniques were for making predictions about the future value of the dollar.
Growth Expectations Stabilize
The WSJ survey of forecasts has just come out [link]. One key finding is that the mean forecast has barely budged since March. In other words, unlike previous months, the perceived outlook has ceased deteriorating.
Guest Blog: The Enduring Trilemma
By Hiro Ito
Today, we’re fortunate to have Hiro Ito, Associate Professor of Economics at Portland State University as a guest blogger.
While the current global crisis does not show any sign of bottoming out, policy makers around the globe are reevaluating international macroeconomic policies and discussing the post-crisis future of the international financial architecture — as we saw in the recent G20 meeting.
Phillip Swagel on the Financial Crisis
I’m behind the curve on recommending Phillip Swagel‘s BPEA paper on the Administration’s response to the financial crisis. But today he talked to the students in my macro course, and his presentation just reinforced my view that his account is one that everbody should read.