I have been updating graphs for my money and banking course, and here is the graph I generated to illustrate the tremendous impact of government borrowing on interest rates via portfolio crowding out (as argued in this post).
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Back of the Envelope Estimates of Chinese Trade Elasticities
And pitfalls in partial equilibrium analyses
Following up on my previous post, I want to examine what would happen if the Chinese yuan appreciated in real terms, either because of nominal appreciation, or because of more rapid inflation in China versus its trade partners. Here are some back of the envelope estimates.
The Yuan’s Course, Updated and Extended
Since China’s currency is in the news [NYT], [Reuters] [Economix/Leonhardt], I thought it useful to update and extend the data depictions from the post a week ago.
Some Policy Implications of the Interdependence of Cyclical and Structural Unemployment
I have decided to forego discussion of the potentially heavy burdens faced by households with incomes in excess of $250,000 should the tax cuts not be extended for income in excess of $250K (see the poignant story here), and focus on the challenges of the unemployed, and what challenges persistent unemployment in turn poses for macroeconomic policy. (Side note: our assessment of the plight of the +$250K income households should be tempered by the knowledge that even those households with income in excess of $250K will see a tax cut under the President’s proposal, since household income below the $250K threshold would be taxed at the current lower marginal rate [0])
Keep on Cooking Your Eggs and Washing Your Pre-Washed Spinach Thoroughly
Fortunately for me, I don’t like peanut butter. From NYT, on the Senate bill to expand FDA powers and increase funding:
The Yuan’s Course
The debate over the yuan’s value is heating up again. [Free Exchange/RA] [WSJ RTE/Talley] [WSJ RTE] Here is a plot of two relevant time series.
“Is the U.S. heading toward another recession?”
That was the title of the Minnesota Public Radio’s Midmorning show, with Kerri Miller. Charles Wheelan, of The Naked Economist, and I were the guests.
Three Graphs Regarding EGTRRA/JGTRRA
If (1) one is a concerned about budget deficits over the longer term, but (2) is concerned that a reversion to pre-2001 tax rates would hurt short term growth, then one should favor the partial extension of EGTTRA/JGTRRA for only those earning less the $250K ($200K for singles).
The Global Economic Crisis
Impacts, Transmission and Recovery.
This was the topic of a conference I recently attended, sponsored by the Korean Development Institute and the East-West Center, organized by Maurice Obstfeld, Dongchul Cho, Andrew Mason and Sang Hyop Lee. It was a great opportunity to hear diverse views on the progress of the world economy. The papers are here.
The “Ever-Expanding” Government Sector, Illustrated
Just some numbers to bring reality into the general discussion: