Is out…
Over the weekend, I was working on my long delayed manuscript on exchange rate modeling [0], and pondering how useful the conventional econometric techniques were for making predictions about the future value of the dollar.
The WSJ survey of forecasts has just come out [link]. One key finding is that the mean forecast has barely budged since March. In other words, unlike previous months, the perceived outlook has ceased deteriorating.
By Hiro Ito
Today, we’re fortunate to have Hiro Ito, Associate Professor of Economics at Portland State University as a guest blogger.
While the current global crisis does not show any sign of bottoming out, policy makers around the globe are reevaluating international macroeconomic policies and discussing the post-crisis future of the international financial architecture — as we saw in the recent G20 meeting.
I’m behind the curve on recommending Phillip Swagel‘s BPEA paper on the Administration’s response to the financial crisis. But today he talked to the students in my macro course, and his presentation just reinforced my view that his account is one that everbody should read.
A year and half ago, I asked “Does it matter that yield curves (around the world) are sloping downward?” (October 12, 2007). I included this snapshot of term premia in the post:
Just a quick post to highlight the OECD’s recent forecast [0] for the US (-7.2% SAAR decline in 2009Q1), and e-forecasting’s latest take (6.8% SAAR decline in 2009M03).
As the G-20 leaders meet in London, one graph should remind the representatives of these disparate countries of their shared interest in restoring the health of the financial systems of the developed countries.
According to the OECD, America’s economy will be shrinking throughout 2009. The rest-of-the-world won’t be doing so hot either.
There’s been substantial discussion of how the debt-to-GDP ratio evolves under the Obama plan. In part, the House attempts to pare back certain provisions of the Obama budget are a reaction to the projected rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio [0].