Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York discuss the outlook for financing the deficit, going forward, in a new Current Issues. From the introduction:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Dollar in the New Year
Is there (an “equlibrium” exchange rate) model for all seasons?
More on China, Currency Misalignment and Data Revisions
In a previous post on China’s currency, I focused on the implications of the ADB’s report on the new ICP analysis of PPP-based GDPs for misalignment estimates for China. Now, it’s time to look a bit more closely at why the data revision occurred.
A Thought on the Sub-prime Debacle
Most of the NYT’s recent coverage of the subprime mess focused on Greenspan and the Federal Reserve System.
Make that Four Reasons Why Recession May be Averted
Sudeep Reddy provides five reasonsWhy Economists Are Betting A Recession Won’t Happen. These reasons are ably summarized in the WSJ Real Time Economics Blog post Five Reasons Recession May Be Averted:
An Exercise in Sheer Conjecture
China, PPP, and Misalignment Estimates
Do We Know a Trend is a Trend?
As the U.S. economy goes into a downturn, we are going to be reminded that extrapolating trends is a hazardous enterprise. For instance, linear extrapolation of tax receipts (expressed as a share of GDP) is probably something that one should be wary of doing. And yet, as shown in some comments on previous posts (see here and here), there seems to be too much belief in what ocular regressions can tell one.
Is the Dollar Near the Bottom (II)
Last week, I wrote a post examining what the measures of central tendency for the dollar’s trajectory were, based upon some standard forecasts. This week, I want to examine more closely whether we should anticipate more depreciation, in real terms, by way of discussing alternative measures of the dollar’s value.
The Administration Finds Fiscal Restraint
From the White House OMB on Saturday:
Is the Dollar Near the Bottom?
Some analysts think so.