There’s been relief in many circles that GDP in 2008Q1 was revised upward. I too take this as good news, to the extent that the economy seems to be growing more rapidly — and output more balanced — than previously thought. Figure 1 depicts the q/q SAAR growth rate, using the May 2008 preliminary release.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
What the Administration Considered Too Dangerous to Release for Four Years
And released only under threat of a court order: “Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States” (summary).
The End of a Trend? The Export and Import Price Release in Context
The BLS’s Import/Export price release, from May 13th, might seem like old news. And some aspects are. But I think it is useful to think about what the trends in these price indices mean for general inflation and the adjustment process (this is in some sense an update on this post).
How Effective Will Monetary Easing Be? The Bank Lending Channel and the Implications of Increasingly Internationalized Banks
As I noted in a previous post, monetary policy works through various channels, one of which is the “bank lending channel”. Lower policy rates, as witnessed in the past few months and shown below, should induce greater lending.
RMB Misalignment in a PPP Framework: The Impact of Data Revisions
The World Bank’s new World Development Indicators were released a bit over a month ago. The impact on the estimates of RMB misalignment are substantial. (This is an elaboration on a RGEMonitor post by Yin-Wong Cheung from a week and half ago, and is based on preliminary results from a presentation made yesterday at a Deutsche Bundesbank and Center for Financial Studies/Goethe University Frankfurt Workshop on Panel Methods and Open Economies”.)
Reconciling Estimates: Biofuels and Food Prices
The AP describes Lazear’s views on the role of biofuels on rising prices thus: “US disputes IMF on food prices”.
From the article by Desmond Butler:
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Bush administration is disputing the International Monetary Fund’s claim that increased production of biofuels is the biggest factor in rising food prices.
High Frequency GDP Estimates
From Macroeconomic Advisers, May 14:
Monthly GDP Index: March 2008
Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in March. This followed a 1.0% decline in February that was revised up from a 1.2% decline in last month’s report. The moderate increase in monthly GDP in March can largely be accounted for by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures and domestic spending on capital goods. A large positive contribution from net exports was essentially offset by a large negative contribution from inventory investment. The level of monthly GDP in March was 0.5% below the first-quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest tracking forecast of 2.6% growth of GDP in Q2 assumes average monthly increases of 0.4% per month from April to June.
Musing on Seasonal Adjustment and the CPI
The latest CPI release provided some much needed relief on the inflation front. What caught my eye was some of the discussion regarding the seasonal adjustment. This inspired me to wonder what seasonal adjustment was doing.
Net Exports, Oil Imports, and Implications for GDP
The March trade release was taken as good news. Here’s some reasons to wonder a bit more about how good the news was.
Lazear Sees No Recession for U.S. Economy
From WSJ, Henry Pulizzi and John D. McKinnon write: