And what would it mean if it had?
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The White House and Other Economic Forecasts
On Thursday, the White House released its new forecasts. How does it compare against other forecasts?
The Euro as the World’s Reserve Currency: A Progress Report
Back in 2005, Jeff Frankel and I presented a series of projections about the dollar’s role as the world’s dominant reserve currency. We concluded:
…Whether the euro might in the future rival or surpass the dollar as the world’s leading international reserve currency appears to depend on two things: (1) do enough other EU members join euroland so that it becomes larger than the US economy, and (2) does US macroeconomic policy eventually undermine confidence in the value of the dollar, in the form of inflation and depreciation.
A Pocketful of Multipliers
…or putting some bounds on the magnitudes of effects.
knzn at Economics and… had an interesting post the other day on “The Indirect Effects of Export Demand”, which seems particularly germane to the current situation. After all, net export demand is one of the few bright spots in the US economy.
Budget Deficit Watch: Receipts Stabilize, Deficit Fails to Shrink
Reader CoRev, in commenting on this post, advises me to look at the actual data for October (instead of the CBO estimate) before declaring a trend deterioration in the budget balance. Well, the data are out.
Why do some economists blog? (Policy edition)
Several people have asked why economists blog. Here are a couple random thoughts centered on individual characteristics.
The Credit Card Bill Comes Due (International Version)
The nation borrowed from the rest-of-the-world when interest rates were low. But interest rates can adjust. So can exchange rates. What to think of our creditors re-appraisal of the “right” effective interest rate to lend to us?
Tales from the Tails of the WSJ Forecast
The interesting aspects of the survey of forecasts conducted by the Wall Street Journal (data here) are not in the means (or medians), but in the tails.
Assessing CBO Projections
CBO releases CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2007 Update [pdf].
Musings on the Trade Release and Consumption Theory
Last week’s trade release induced some wide-ranging thoughts, that spurred more questions than answers. In an experimental post, I’ll pose some questions that I hope readers will help me answer.