Several observers have taken solace from the jump in housing starts; however others have noted the implications of the decline in housing permit applications are not so rosy.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Attaining Internal and External Equilibrium in China
China raises rates again. What will higher rates do?
Negative Net Income: The 2006 Balance of Payments
Most commentary on the 2006q4 current account balance release focused on the improvement in the overall balance. Little noted is the fact that 2006 is the first year in which the net income category has registered negative.
The Term Spread, Cross Country
How does the term spread correlate with recession in other economies?
The January Trade Balance: Reading the Tea Leaves
Are declining capital imports growth rates an indicator of recession?
WMDs in Iraq, “Last throes…” and… “deficits don’t matter”
According to former Secretary of Treasury Paul O’Neill, Dick Cheney is reputed to have said: “…deficits don’t matter.”
(see Suskind’s The Price of Loyalty, and online here). What’s the (updated) evidence?
Globalization and Inflation: Thinking about Identification
Recent news articles ([1], [2]) and
blog posts (Economists View,
Big Picture) have discussed Bernanke’s March 2 speech on globalization and inflation.
Whither the Chinese Yuan?
The problem with writing blog posts in advance (I wrote most of this on the 25th) is that they may very well be rendered obsolete by the passage of events, especially when covering financial markets. Hopefully, in this case, the heightened uncertainty in emerging markets — as well as the durability of the yen carry trade — will not change the outlook for the CNY very much.
The Fundamentals Are…
The equity indices take a dive. Is this in spite of — or because of — the fundamentals?
Fiscal Stimulus under Current Law and under a Probable Alternative
The CBO released The Cyclically Adjusted and Standardized Budget Measures last Thursday.