The Society Survey of Professional Forecasters latest report (dated 13 February) has been released. The mean forecast is quite interesting, in light of Jim’s recent post on industrial production and the growth outlook.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
2+2=3
Or some (more) things in the Budget Proposal don’t add up
Suppose the President’s plan to escalate troop levels in Iraq succeeds in stabilizating Baghdad. What does that mean for future expenditures in support of the occupation of Iraq? Is the President’s $50 billion request for Iraq related expenditures in FY2009 consistent with the plan? This article from GovExec.com provides some hints.
The December Trade Release: Beyond the Surprise
Almost old news, the February 13 BEA/Census release for December trade provided ample grist for the mill. Insightful perspective was provided by Brad Setser and David Altig. Here I try to add a few other insights.
The 2007 Economic Report of the President on Exchange Rate Determination (and the Renminbi)
The 2007 Economic Report of the President was released Monday afternoon. Chapter 7, entitled “Currency Markets and Exchange Rates,” is a laudable exegesis on the determination of exchange rates.
Is a 12 Step Program Needed for Policymaking in Washington?
A Race between Inflows and the Deficit
From today’s Reuters:
How to balance the Federal budget, Bush style
First, assume away expenses…
Manufacturing, Tradables, and Trade Adjustment
In his preview of the 2007 Economic Report of the President, CEA Chair Ed Lazear presented the argument that manufacturing output is still growing.
Trends in exports and imports
The NIPA release of January 31 contained a couple of surprises, including on the international front. The external accounts did provide a bit of a kick on growth, as shown in Jim Hamilton’s post.
Macroeconomic Implications of War with Iran
Or, “Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia”. The speculation regarding imminent military action rises. What are the fiscal implications of a large scale missile campaign? What would be the repercussions of likely Iranian responses (including closing off the Straits of Hormuz)?