There’s been a debate whether investment rates in China are sustainable or not.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Downshifting and Reversion in Forecasts
My post on CEA’s forecast discussed the similarity between the Administration’s forecast and the Society of Professional Forecasters forecast. What can we learn from recent SPF forecasts, in the wake of decelerating growth.
Will the Dollar Plunge? Would that Be So Bad?
Yesterday’s dollar plunge unnerved markets. What’s the likelihood of a sustained, drastic decline?
Forecasts Then and Now: A Cautionary Tale
The White House released its midterm forecast on Tuesday. Some thoughts on forecasts around turning points.
Some Puzzling Effects of Productivity on the Real Exchange Rate
What should be the effect of productivity increases on the real exchange rate?
Are the Democrats Truly More Protectionist?
In the wake of the midterm elections, and the failure to renew Vietnamese PNTR, there has been a lot of talk about how more protectionist Democratic lawmakers are. See WaPo, The Economist (pre-election) [sub.req.], WSJ [sub.req.] and here. Greg Mankiw also steps in the fray.
Can Gravity Be Defied?
“Dark Matter”, like all stories about free lunches, still excites lots of people’s imagination, as evidenced by the reaction to my post on the subject a week ago. Here is one picture that should further temper the excitement.
The Expansion Compared
There was a lot of mystification why the electorate was so concerned about the economy, when aggregate measures of economic performance were signalling positive.
Current Account Imbalances, Again
At the 7th annual IMF Research Conference, Olivier Blanchard discussed in the keynote lecture whether it makes sense to worry about the U.S. current acount deficit.
RIP, Dark Matter As Cure-All
Two recent publications should help put to rest the conjecture that there are vast pools of U.S. wealth lying overseas, ready to save the day.