From the Wikipedia entry on 12-step programs:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
A Race between Inflows and the Deficit
From today’s Reuters:
How to balance the Federal budget, Bush style
First, assume away expenses…
Manufacturing, Tradables, and Trade Adjustment
In his preview of the 2007 Economic Report of the President, CEA Chair Ed Lazear presented the argument that manufacturing output is still growing.
Trends in exports and imports
The NIPA release of January 31 contained a couple of surprises, including on the international front. The external accounts did provide a bit of a kick on growth, as shown in Jim Hamilton’s post.
Macroeconomic Implications of War with Iran
Or, “Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia”. The speculation regarding imminent military action rises. What are the fiscal implications of a large scale missile campaign? What would be the repercussions of likely Iranian responses (including closing off the Straits of Hormuz)?
Exchange rates, output gaps and inflation rates
Is there any role for the Taylor rule in helping predict exchange rates?
Army Transformation sacrificed on the altar of …(a) tax cuts, (b) Iraq, (c) other
Or, “opportunity cost illustrated” redux. From GovExec.com:
Federal Government Interest Payments Rising
The Treasury Department reported a steady rate of purchases of Treasuries by foreigners (see the Bloomberg account here). Let’s hope that continues — although we should be cognizant of the ramifications: increasing debt and interest payments to foreigners.
Escalation and Accidental Military Keynesianism
Under plausible assumptions, Fiscal Year ’07 expenditures for operations in Iraq will come close to 1 percentage point of GDP. What will be the impact on the U.S. economy?