There’s a lot of evidence of a rising inventory of unsold housing, and a big decline in housing sales. Can a more quantitative, stock-based figure be obtained?
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The October Employment Report: Dunking the Data in Some Cold Water
There has been much hullaballoo about how tight the labor market is given the upward revisions in the August and September figures, on top of the preliminary benchmark revision reported last month.
Estimating U.S.-China Trade Elasticities: Some Very Preliminary Results
Do we have any idea what the CNY appreciation against the dollar will accomplish?
“Trends in Iraq” – Updated
This figure updates the data presented in an earlier post on Iraq trends, replacing the projection with actual figures for October.
Skepticism about the Business Fixed Investment Handoff
One view of how GDP growth can be sustained in the wake of negative residential investment growth is to assert that business fixed investment picks up the slack. If this happens, then the adjustment of construction employment need not be too abrupt.
The U.S. Macroeconomy: Facing the Future with (at least) One Hand Tied
[This is an English version of an article that appeared the Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore on the 24th September.]
Today, the U.S. economy stands poised between persistent inflation and slowdown. Even as many measures in the production side of the economy signal continued strength in the economy, forward looking indicators such as housing prices, residential investment, and the yield curve point to substantially weaker growth going forward.
The Fiscal Exposure of the Nation
In present value terms, where were we in 2000? Where are we now?
Monday, December 18, 2006
At the rate of casualties incurred in October-to-date, cumulative U.S. fatalities in the Iraqi theater of operations will exceed 3000 on this date.
Tales from the CBO (and the White House)
Investigating the numbers
How Strong Is (Was) the Dollar?
An alternative view on the dollar’s strength and trend over time.