The Bush Administration’s quid pro quo of early-on steel protectionism in exchange for fast track negotiating authority for the Doha Round seems like a bad bet (May 24) in retrospect.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
A long term perspective on differential approaches to fiscal policy
Or, over the past quarter century, have Democrats and Republicans acted differently?
(Non) transparency of GWOT expenditures, and an update on Iraq metrics
While the events in Lebanon and Gaza have pushed Iraq off center stage, Iraq and Afghanistan remain the largest fiscal drains on the U.S. Treasury and the military’s ability to respond to other strategic challenges. In this light, GAO Comptroller David Walker’s testimony on Tuesday [pdf] is both illuminating and depressing. From the Summary:
Some (delayed) reflections on whether the non-oil trade deficit stabilization at hand — or not
I was out of the country when these data were released, so I didn’t immediately write a post on the data. In any case several commentators covered the ground so well I didn’t have much to add immediately. Several forwarded the possibility of trade deficit (as a share of GDP) stabiization (see here and here), in light of the fact that the May trade release which showed a smaller than consensus deficit. In the past I made similar observations (see here). I remain hopeful, but am still not yet convinced.
Out of sample prediction of the euro, pound and CAD
Once more unto the breach.
Is the surge in tax receipts truly extraordinary?
There has been much talk about how the deficit problem has been licked, as tax receipts surge. Is (Lafferian) supply-side economics right? Are we in a new era of surging tax receipts for the forseeable future? The short answers are “no” and “no”.
One picture from the 2005 International Investment Position release (and one from the NIPA)
Amid all the relief (see here and — kind of — here) over the improvement in the U.S. net international investment position (NIIP) despite the record current account deficit, the trend in one ratio was unremarked upon — namely the ratio of U.S. Government securities held by non-residents, divided by GDP.
Production subsidies for ethanol
Do we need to subsidize ethanol production? Does it matter if we are subsidizing the input (i.e., corn)? This is not a rhetorical question.
A Budgetary Counterfactual
What if we had not cut taxes for the richest and increased discretionary spending faster than the rate of inflation?
More on the Costs of Energy Dependence
Quantification is the first step in assessing the proper course of action