What to make of the newest inversion?
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The 2001 recession revisited
With revised data, when did the last recession begin?
Are we winning the war against the budget deficit?
The Congressional Budget Office released its update on the budget outlook today. What’s the message behind the message?
A closer look at the US-China trade figures…and more on the RMB
The Renminbi (RMB) is probably undervalued, according to some criteria. Would adjusting it fix the US-China trade deficit? Or the overall US trade deficit?
Billions for production, not a cent for conservation…
Well, not quite. But I find it interesting to see how much revenue the government loses by giving tax breaks to certain groups in the energy arena.
The June 2006 Trade Figures
Persisting trends, for now
Could it be that we’re already in a recession? Lessons from the last episode
There’s a lot of talk about recession these days, despite the fairly rapid average growth of GDP in the past few quarters. Krugman (via DeLong) observes a slowdown is coming that might feel a lot like a recession. DeLong considers whether Fed policy has already raised rates to such a degree a recession is inevitable. Roubini bravely cites probabilities. My colleague James Hamilton provides a contrasting opinion, based upon his academic work with Chauvet [pdf].
The enigmatic Yuan
The Yuan has not been moving much. Or has it? And does it matter much for the U.S. current account deficit
Report of the National Research Council on “Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years”
What do the scientists (in peer reviewed journals) say about global warming?
A Dynamic Analysis of Permanent Extension of the President’s Tax Relief
The press account surrounding the Mid Session Review (MSR) (page 3-4) noted the preferred estimate of GNP response to the President’s tax proposals: real GNP might be 0.7 percent higher than steady state baseline. The Treasury’s Office of Tax Analysis has just released the underlying analysis.