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Super Bowl gambling, New STEM museum, Economic forecast, Vocal cord dysfunction
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Inflation: January 2024
CPI comes in above consensus, on both headline and core. Instantaneous inflation (per Eeckhout (2023)) has a slight uptick.
Inflation Expectations Down
Forecast errors from end of last year are essentially zero.
Asian-Americans Once Again Thank Trump
Where Does UkraineRussia Fit As an Independent State, Historically?
A great map, courtesy of the former President of Mongolia:
Survey of Professional Forecasters – February
From Friday’s SPF release for Q1, for GDP:
Donald Trump Proposes Violating Treaty Agreements
From CNN:
Why I Don’t Think It Was Only Demand Shocks that Drove 2022-23 Inflation
From a lecture prepared for “Macroeconomic Policy” (Spring 2024):
Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Countries [updated]
Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of post 12.6.2021)
Is Germany in a Recession? And if so, would we have predicted it?
In Chinn and Ferrara (2024), we find substantial explanatory power for the 10yr-3mo, the 3 month rate, and the debt service ratio for German recessions (our analysis we also covered Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Sweden, and UK). Our sample extended up to 2022M12 (using spreads up to 2021M12), as we were unsure about recession in 2023. With Germany in a possible slowdown, it’s of interest to consider what our model would have predicted.