Despite some views that GDP growth would be revised downward substantially (see discussion here), the recent trajectory of GDP and GDO was largely unchanged (even if the level over the period 2019 onward was). A lot of the revisions are summarized in this figure from Paweł Skrzypczyński:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Musings on Economic Policies in a Trump Second Term
We don’t know much, but we know tax cuts and tariffs are on the agenda. I suppose that, while he might not execute the Fed Chair (that’s reserved for a select few), he is likely to try to otherwise eject him/her if policy is not to his liking.
On the Eve of the BEA Comprehensive NIPA Revisions
Coming tomorrow morning – the revisions to GDP over the last five years incorporating lots of new source data may change substantially our understanding of the evolution of economic activity (discussion by Claudia Sahm) (in contrast, last year’s annual revisions didn’t really change the outlook).
Arthur Laffer in Wisconsin (Literally and Metaphorically)
CROWE and Young America’s Foundation are bringing Arthur Laffer to speak at UW Madison today (Grainger Hall, Plenary Room, 5:30-6:30 CT). The timing is fortuitous, as the state Senate is moving forward on passing AB386, which would exempt some portion of retiree income from taxes (up to 100K for single filers, 150K for married filing jointly), and drop the tax rate.
Some Forecasts of Industrial Production Growth
Forecasts of recession vary with indicators (term spread, foreign term spreads, debt-service ratios). Forecasts of economic activity — as measured by industrial produciton — also differ by predictor.
Boloori & Saghafian, “Health and Economic Impacts of Lockdown Policies in the Early Stage of COVID-19 in the United States”
From the paper published in Service Science (2023), Alireza Boloori (University of Washington-Tacoma), and Soroush Saghafian (Harvard):
Ode on a Bruce Hall Link
This is a reprint of a post from 2020 entitled “The Worst Statistical Analysis I Have Seen This Year”, motivated by Mr. Bruce Hall‘s urging that we look at a Judith Curry link.
Jackboots in Popular Discourse, or “Where did we really see (govt) jackboots?”
In defending the Kudlow alternative math calculation of net job gains in first 30 months of the Trump and Biden administrations, Mr. Bruce Hall writes:
Some Dubious Coincident Indicators of Recession, Again: VMT, gasoline supplied, EPU vs Heavy Truck Sates and Sahm Rule
Reader Steven Kopits, who as recently as a couple weeks ago argued strenuously that a recession occurred in 2022H1, writes of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index graph shown in this post:
Almost Half a Century of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
It seems a lot less uncertain since 2021M01.