ADP private nonfarm has a blowout upside surprise of +497K vs. consensus +228K. For context, the m/m standard deviation of log first differences is 0.0028, vs. June reading of 0.0039.
Using the correlation between log first differences for BLS nonfarm payroll employment and ADP, I get the following prediction or “nowcast” for the BLS number to be released tomorrow, taken literally, a 486K employment increase (ignoring revisions to previous months):
I’ve gotten jaded by getting regular emails alerting me to the fact a new Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast or Monthly Economic Update (the latest just out, here). In addition, DoR has substantially expanded its interactive data visualizations here. But after a little thought, I really have to say it’s been a sea change in openness since Governor Walker exited.
From CEPR-EABCN’s Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (June 30 meeting), “Not Every Downturn Is a Recession”
State level GDP figures for Wisconsin was released last week. Here’s a picture of that series, compared to the Evers Administration’s forecast, and a naive forecast based on US GDP and lagged WI GDP.
From Reuters:
June 30 (Reuters) – The Texas power grid comfortably met record demand during this week’s heat wave with abundant power supply from wind and solar plants, data from the grid operator showed.
With today’s spending and income release, we have this picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (consumption, income, sales), along with monthly GDP. Atlanta Fed has also released a new nowcast of GDP.
Presentation of paper by coauthor Laurent Ferrara and myself, today at International Symposium on Forecasting 2023…
Ferrara and De Roux actually pose the question more tactfully, in their paper (Capturing international influences in U.S. monetary policy through a NLP approach) presented at the ISF meetings here in Charlottesville. They look to see if in the FOMC minutes, international economic issues are mentioned in a way that, when converted to an index, shows up as statistically significant in a Taylor equation, and provide the answer “yes”.